|
|
The Mouth Attempts A Big Bluff
A few months ago I watched the final table of the WPT (World Poker Tour) tournament at the Bay 101 as Mike “The Mouth” Matusow went for the win. Late in the day, with four players remaining at the table and the blinds at $15,000 - $30,000—and a $5,000 a man ante—Matusow ($1.8 million in chips) opened for $70,000 under the gun with Ac-10d, and Alan Sternberg ($3.7 million in chips) called with 4-4 on the button. The flop came down Ks-9h-9c, Matusow bet $85,000, and Sternberg called. The turn card was the 6c, Matusow checked, and Sternberg bet $125,000. After a minute, Matusow made a move and raised it up to $325,000 to go (a $200,000 raise), and after about 30 seconds Sternberg called. The river was the 3h, and Matusow bet $500,000, and Sternberg quickly called.
I break this hand down, both here in this column below and in full video on the WPT website. Before I begin, I need to give some context to the hand. Matusow had not made a single bluff for hours, and he was clearly the tightest player at the table. Matusow’s opening raise of $70,000 (a little bit over a 2x raise of $60,000) is the standard sized raise of 2011. It doesn’t mean that I like it! I would rather see a bigger sized raise of say, three times the big blind ($90,000). Sternberg’s call was fine. Matusow’s $85,000 c-bet (continuation bet - where the player that raises it up before the flop bets on the flop) was OK by me, and is standard. Matusow’s check on the turn was OK; it looks like A-10 is not the best hand, so why not give up losing $155,000? Sternberg’s $125,000 bet is interesting. Obviously Sternberg thought that he had the best hand with his pocket fours. Thus he thought that Matusow was weak, and because of this fact, I like Sternberg’s $125,000 bet. Another two points that back up Sternberg’s bet: first, by betting here, he freezes Matusow from making a bigger sized bet on the river if Matusow has a pocket pair higher than Sternberg’s, like J-J; second, he protects his hand from losing by forcing Matusow to fold hands like A-Q. On the other side of the coin, by betting here Sternberg could put himself into a tough spot, because if Matusow does raise it up, then Sternberg probably has to fold as he can only beat a bluff, and Matusow hadn’t bluffed all day long. So Sternberg’s bet allows Matusow to make a move, or to charge Sternberg more money if Matusow does have him beat and raises it up. I like Matusow’s $200,000 raise on the turn, but I would have liked it if he had raised it up more, like say $400,000 or so.
I love Matusow’s $500,000 bluff on the river for four reasons: first, Matusow had a good read (Matusow told me that he thought that Sternberg had a small pocket pair): second, Matusow had not attempted a bluff in five hours of play, so that he had a strong image: third, Matusow bet the right amount, in other words he bet like he had A-K: fourth, Matusow’s $500,000 river bet showed a ton of heart and courage—I mean Matusow fired three barrels (he bluffed three straight streets), and this is a rare feat! Two facts worked against Matusow: first, the fact that Sternberg had already called $325,000 on the turn made it more likely that he would call a $500,000 bet on the river: second, Sternberg had a lot more chips than Matusow did, so that a $500,000 call wouldn’t put too big a dent in his stack. Give Sternberg maximum credit here for a great read: Sternberg called a three barrel bluff with a small pair! To sum up, Matusow’s strong bet was trumped by Sternberg’s strong read. |
|
[复制链接]
