Phil Hellmuth专栏

Math and Beyond

Recently I played in the $5,000 buy in NAPT (North American Poker Tour) event at the Venetian.  Will the NAPT end up becoming bigger than the WPT (World Poker Tour) someday soon?  Some poker veterans are betting that it will.  After all, the NAPT is broadcast on ESPN II, and it had huge numbers of players for its first two events: 1,500 players in the Bahamas, and 900 players at the Venetian.

After a few hours at the table, an interesting hand came up.  But first, let me set the stage a little bit.  Player A was raising up quite a few pots, and when he raised under the gun to $1,600 to go, I made a bad read and I reraised to $5,000 with the Jd-5d.  He called, the flop was 6d-5h-4c, and we both checked.  The turn card was the seven of hearts, and he bet out $6,000, and I called.  The river was a king, and we both checked.  When he showed down 9-9, I was thinking that I could have won this pot with a raise on the turn.  If I sensed weakness (I did), then I should have made my move!  I lied about my hand, saying that I had Ah-Jh, which made for a flush draw on fourth street.  Exactly three hands later my hand of the week came up.  I opened for $1,600 with Qs-Qc, and Player A made it $4,500 to go.  Immediately I sensed that Player A had pocket aces, but my read on him was bad the last time around.  Still, I stared at him and all I could think about was the fact that he had A-A!

I briefly considered folding right then and there, and then I thought that it was a pretty tough fold against a guy that was playing more hands than anyone else at the table.  I called $2,900 more and the flop was 10s-5s-4d.  I checked, and he bet $4,500.  Again, I sensed that I was up against exactly A-A, but when I counted down my chips I realized I only had $15,000 left.  Could I really lay this hand down?  Finally, I decided not to fold, and I called my buddy Daniel Negreanu over.  Lord knows why I called Negreanu over, but when he walked over, I told him, “I used to be able to fold this hand when my opponent had pocket aces, but I’m just a little bit off of my top form.”  Then I announced, “I’m all in.”  Player A “Snap called” my all in bet (a bad sign when they call that quickly) and he showed me what I knew on so many levels that he had in his hand: two red aces.

Now, from a mathematical point of view, I absolutely had to go broke on this hand: my opponent was playing tons of hands, I had just mixed it up with him three hands earlier, I didn’t have a ton of chips, and the flop looked really great for my hand.  However, poker isn’t just about math; it is also about reading your opponents.  In fact, in my twenty five years in poker, I have been able to get away from hundreds of strong hands that even other great poker players would have gone broke with.  One time on ESPN while I made a great lay down I famously said, “I can dodge bullets baby!”  These kind of “All star” lay downs are all about reading your opponents well, trusting your instincts, and then making the right move.  Making one or two great lay downs per tournament gives you one or two extra lives.  Making one or two well timed bluffs a day gives you tons of extra chips.

Putting a positive slant on this situation is important to me.  So I look at it this way: the great news is that I knew that my opponent had pocket aces.  And next time, I can go ahead and make the great lay down!

多学高手的手法。

拥有十四枚奥运金牌的扑克选手

Math and Beyond

Recently I played in the $5,000 buy in NAPT (North American Poker Tour) event at the Venetian.  Will the NAPT end up becoming bigger than the WPT (World Poker Tour) someday soon?  Some poker veterans are betting that it will.  After all, the NAPT is broadcast on ESPN II, and it had huge numbers of players for its first two events: 1,500 players in the Bahamas, and 900 players at the Venetian.

数学与超越数学

最近，我参加了NAPT的5,000元买入的比赛（北美扑克巡回赛）在拉斯维加斯的威尼斯。NAPT将来有一天会不会比世界扑克巡回赛(WPT)还大？有些扑克老玩家说会。毕竟，NAPT的是广播在ESPN2, 还有它的前面两个赛事都有大量的玩家报名：1500玩家在巴哈马群岛（NAPT-PCA)，以及900名选手在威尼斯(NAPT-Venetian)。

After a few hours at the table, an interesting hand came up.  But first, let me set the stage a little bit.  Player A was raising up quite a few pots, and when he raised under the gun to $1,600 to go, I made a bad read and I reraised to $5,000 with the Jd-5d.  He called, the flop was 6d-5h-4c, and we both checked.  The turn card was the seven of hearts, and he bet out $6,000, and I called.  The river was a king, and we both checked.  When he showed down 9-9, I was thinking that I could have won this pot with a raise on the turn.  If I sensed weakness (I did), then I should have made my move!  I lied about my hand, saying that I had Ah-Jh, which made for a flush draw on fourth street.  Exactly three hands later my hand of the week came up.  I opened for $1,600 with Qs-Qc, and Player A made it $4,500 to go.  Immediately I sensed that Player A had pocket aces, but my read on him was bad the last time around.  Still, I stared at him and all I could think about was the fact that he had A-A!

在桌子后几个小时后，有一手有趣的牌出现。但首先，让我来说下当时的情况。玩家A是加注了不少的锅，当他在抢口位置加注至1,600元，我读错了对手用Jd5d加注至5,000元。他靠，翻牌是 6d 5h 4c，我们iangge都过牌(观让)。转牌是7h，他下注6,000元，我打靠。河牌是一个K，我们两个都过牌。当他显出9-9，我在想如果我在转牌圈加注我是可以赢得了这个锅。如果我感到对手的虚弱（我有），那么我应该要相信我自己在转牌圈加注！我对对手说谎，说我有AhJh，在第转牌圈的时候听同花。三手过后，我一周内最精彩的手出现。我加注至1,600通过QsQc，玩家A再加注至4,500。我立刻感觉到玩家AA，但上一手我对他读不好。不过，我看着了他，所有我能想到的是，他有AA！

I briefly considered folding right then and there, and then I thought that it was a pretty tough fold against a guy that was playing more hands than anyone else at the table.  I called $2,900 more and the flop was 10s-5s-4d.  I checked, and he bet $4,500.  Again, I sensed that I was up against exactly A-A, but when I counted down my chips I realized I only had $15,000 left.  Could I really lay this hand down?  Finally, I decided not to fold, and I called my buddy Daniel Negreanu over.  Lord knows why I called Negreanu over, but when he walked over, I told him, “I used to be able to fold this hand when my opponent had pocket aces, but I’m just a little bit off of my top form.”  Then I announced, “I’m all in.”  Player A “Snap called” my all in bet (a bad sign when they call that quickly) and he showed me what I knew on so many levels that he had in his hand: two red aces.

我当时短暂的虑折弃牌，然而，我认为面对一个打得比其他在桌上的玩家上还松的玩家，这一手太难弃掉了。我靠多压上2,900，翻牌是10s5s4d。我过牌，他下注4,500。同样的，我感觉到我的对手是AA，但是当我数了我的筹码，我意识到我只有剩下了15,000元。我真的可以放下这手牌？最后，我决定不弃牌，我叫我的朋友D.Negreanu过来。上帝知道我为什么叫D.Negreanu过来，但是当他走过来的时候，我告诉他，“我以前能够弃掉这一手牌，当我的对手有AA，但是今天我不是在最佳状态。”然后，我宣布：“我全下”玩家A迅速靠，然后向我显示两个红A。

Now, from a mathematical point of view, I absolutely had to go broke on this hand: my opponent was playing tons of hands, I had just mixed it up with him three hands earlier, I didn’t have a ton of chips, and the flop looked really great for my hand.  However, poker isn’t just about math; it is also about reading your opponents.  In fact, in my twenty five years in poker, I have been able to get away from hundreds of strong hands that even other great poker players would have gone broke with.  One time on ESPN while I made a great lay down I famously said, “I can dodge bullets baby!”  These kind of “All star” lay downs are all about reading your opponents well, trusting your instincts, and then making the right move.  Making one or two great lay downs per tournament gives you one or two extra lives.  Making one or two well timed bluffs a day gives you tons of extra chips.

现在，从数学的角度来看，这一手牌我绝对得打到完：我的对手打得很松，玩很多手牌，三手前，我刚刚和他交过手，我没有太多的筹码，翻牌圈对我的QQ是很好的。然而，扑克不只是数学，更是关于阅读对手。事实上，在我25年的职业扑克生涯，我已经作了很多能够弃大牌摆脱这种情况，尽管其玩好的扑克玩家是不能摆脱的。在过去ESPN的播出，有一次我作出了巨大的弃牌然后说出了现在成了名言的：“我可以回避子弹 baby！”这种“全星”（高难度）的弃牌需要对你的对手有很好的了解，相信自己的直觉，然后作出正确的行动。每一场比赛作出一个或两个大的弃牌能给你一个或两个额外的比赛生命。一天能把握好时机作出一个或两个好的蒙牌咋呼能给你额外的筹码。

Putting a positive slant on this situation is important to me.  So I look at it this way: the great news is that I knew that my opponent had pocket aces.  And next time, I can go ahead and make the great lay down!

乐观的正视这种情况对我很重要。因此，我看是这样看待这一手牌的：好消息是，我知道我的对手有AA。下一次，我可以继续作出伟大的弃牌！

注：如果大家看到我那里翻译的意思不太对，请帮我也帮大家修改。谢谢

Phil’s Timing was off!

Last column I talked about the power of math in poker, but I also talked about reading your opponents as being an essential ingredient in no limit Hold’em tournament success.  In the $25,000 buy in NAPT (North American Poker Tour) High Roller shoot out tournament here in Vegas last week, I had a seven player heat where I would have been better off using pure math.  Basically, I let John Duthie and Hevad Khan run over my blinds: they raised my big blind 100% of the time and I never reraised.  In fact, in four hours of play, I called a raise twice in the big blind, and I only won one pot out of the big blind.  Given that the blinds and antes were raised every 40 minutes, this was some pretty weak poker on my part!

If the structure is a slow one, then I do not mind letting people run over my blinds.  I figure that I am conditioning my opponents into believing that they think that they can bluff me, and then when it really counts, I call them down and win a huge pot.  Also, I will slow play hands to set this up.  For example, I may only call with A-K suited in the big blind, and then check my hand on the flop, and on the turn when it comes down A-K-4-6.

But when the structure is fast, then it is a different story.  One cannot let a bad run of cards dictate that you will fold every big blind for three hours straight.  The best counter tactic for when someone is raising up your blind all the time is to reraise them a few times and let them know that you will not roll over every time!  Normally I like to use my reading ability to determine when I should reraise from the big blind, but sometimes you just feel like folding every time because you do not have a strong read, or sometimes you are playing on the Internet.  This is where math can help a bad read.  The math play says that you should assume that your opponent doesn’t always have a strong hand, and that you should go ahead and reraise out of the big blind sometimes.  If I am playing on the internet, then I am forced to use mostly math in my decisions.  Thus, if this event had come up on the Internet, then I would have reraised Khan and Duthie when they came knocking at my big blind door.  After a few reraises, they would have received the message that this is not a “Weak blind” that they could steal every time.

When I finally did make my stand, I was wrong!  With the blinds at $600-$1,200 and a $100 a man ante, Duthie opened for $3,600, and out of the small blind I looked down at K-J.  I thought for a long time, and although my initial read was strength because he opened for a full “three time the big blind raise,” I convinced myself that Duthie was weak, and I moved all in for $22,700.  Duthie then said, “I hope you don’t have aces, I call.”  Duthie showed down As-Ks, and I busted out knowing that I had gone with my read, and that it was a bad read.  This made me think back over my 25 year career and I remembered that I am not always right, and that I only like to make a move when I have a very strong read on my opponents.  It’s not like you have to read everyone perfectly every time to win 11 WSOP bracelets, it is more like you have to read someone perfectly maybe twice an hour.  So today I will use more math, and hope that my read is right when once or twice an hour, when I really need it to be right!

“All ins” in the New World

In the new poker world, it seems that the modern day poker players accept the fact that they will be all in many times throughout the course of a poker tournament, and thus they are ready to play some all in pots.  A few years back, winning a poker tournament without ever being all in was considered an art form.  One big reason for the switch in philosophies towards playing lots of all in pots, is Internet poker.  On the Internet they have mathematically solved certain situations; like moving all in over the top of someone, from the big blind, with hands like K-Q, when you have less than 20 big blinds.  Let me repeat, when you have K-Q in the big blind and less than 20 big blinds, new online game theory shows that you are supposed to move all in when someone else raises it up!  In the real world, this is not the case, or is it?  To me, you have to factor in reads, the frequency of opponents raises pre-flop, and table image.  Or do you?  Most players are convinced that since there is a mathematical solution online, that that same solution applies perfectly well in the real world.  Thus, these days you may raise it up with 9-9 or A-9, and then be forced to call an all in reraise from someone in the big blind, who you likely have beat.

Suddenly, no limit Hold’em tournaments are all about sheer aggression, winning coin flips, and applying mathematical solutions to the game.  The new school players think nothing of shoving in 30 big blinds worth of chips with A-J off suit!  So what if their opponent calls them every once in awhile with K-K!  They figure that their opponent will fold pre-flop often enough for their shove that the play is profitable.  Is reading an opponent as important now as it was for the past few decades?  No, which is not to say that reads aren’t still a huge part of the game; however, making a good read pre-flop can put you at risk anyway.  I mean, when everyone shoves with K-Q from the big blind, and you figure out that they have it, you are still only a small favorite over K-Q when you have A-J or 9-9.

This new school tactic of shoving with K-Q works well for Internet players and weaker players, who would be eaten up by the old school pros if they played a more traditional, conservative style of poker, or if they play “Flop poker” (on the flop) with the champions.  In the past I could make it deep in poker tournaments without being all in because people knew I had a strong hand when I raised it up (I played super tight), and thus they folded the K-Q, or just called with it.  Now, the weak players sitting with under 20 big blinds and K-Q say, “Phil probably has me beat, but I know that he hates to play big pots, and even if he does have a hand like J-J, I am only a small underdog.  I’m all in!”  This forces the great players to play big pots and it neutralizes some of skill factor.

The more I have pondered this new information, the more I believe that I need to play super tight, along with using the “Over the top” tactic.  If my opponents are going to aggressively reraise my opening bets, then it will favor me if I am strong and I can consider calling them, or moving all in.  And the over the top move augers well with playing super tight because it makes you look super strong when you do finally come over the top; and let’s not forget that the over the top move still works around 75% of the time.  So for me, narrowing my opening hand range, and coming over the top when I have a strong read—or a strong hand--should get me deep in some big poker tournaments soon!

辛苦各位翻译的同学了非常感谢

Very well Said!

“All ins” in the New World

In the new poker world, it seems that the modern day poker players accept the fact that they will be all in many times throughout the course of a poker tournament, and thus they are ready to play some all in pots.  A few years back, winning a poker tournament without ever being all in was considered an art form.  One big reason for the switch in philosophies towards playing lots of all in pots, is Internet poker.  On the Internet they have mathematically solved certain situations; like moving all in over the top of someone, from the big blind, with hands like K-Q, when you have less than 20 big blinds.  Let me repeat, when you have K-Q in the big blind and less than 20 big blinds, new online game theory shows that you are supposed to move all in when someone else raises it up!  In the real world, this is not the case, or is it?  To me, you have to factor in reads, the frequency of opponents raises pre-flop, and table image.  Or do you?  Most players are convinced that since there is a mathematical solution online, that that same solution applies perfectly well in the real world.  Thus, these days you may raise it up with 9-9 or A-9, and then be forced to call an all in reraise from someone in the big blind, who you likely have beat.

Suddenly, no limit Hold’em tournaments are all about sheer aggression, winning coin flips, and applying mathematical solutions to the game.  The new school players think nothing of shoving in 30 big blinds worth of chips with A-J off suit!  So what if their opponent calls them every once in awhile with K-K!  They figure that their opponent will fold pre-flop often enough for their shove that the play is profitable.  Is reading an opponent as important now as it was for the past few decades?  No, which is not to say that reads aren’t still a huge part of the game; however, making a good read pre-flop can put you at risk anyway.  I mean, when everyone shoves with K-Q from the big blind, and you figure out that they have it, you are still only a small favorite over K-Q when you have A-J or 9-9.

This new school tactic of shoving with K-Q works well for Internet players and weaker players, who would be eaten up by the old school pros if they played a more traditional, conservative style of poker, or if they play “Flop poker” (on the flop) with the champions.  In the past I could make it deep in poker tournaments without being all in because people knew I had a strong hand when I raised it up (I played super tight), and thus they folded the K-Q, or just called with it.  Now, the weak players sitting with under 20 big blinds and K-Q say, “Phil probably has me beat, but I know that he hates to play big pots, and even if he does have a hand like J-J, I am only a small underdog.  I’m all in!”  This forces the great players to play big pots and it neutralizes some of skill factor.

The more I have pondered this new information, the more I believe that I need to play super tight, along with using the “Over the top” tactic.  If my opponents are going to aggressively reraise my opening bets, then it will favor me if I am strong and I can consider calling them, or moving all in.  And the over the top move augers well with playing super tight because it makes you look super strong when you do finally come over the top; and let’s not forget that the over the top move still works around 75% of the time.  So for me, narrowing my opening hand range, and coming over the top when I have a strong read—or a strong hand--should get me deep in some big poker tournaments soon!

Over the Top and Smooth

At the WPT (World Poker Tour) event at the Bay 101 a few weeks back, I unleashed the tactics that I have worked so hard on; tactics that would enable me to play optimal poker in the modern era, and I came out smiling (mostly).  I decided to pay super tight (no surprise), trust my instincts (no surprise), come over the top (no surprise), and slow play some of my big pairs (surprise!).  When I am “On form” (as they say in Europe) in a no limit Hold’em tournament, I am almost unstoppable.  I have been working super hard on my poker game; including discussing tactics with Brandon Cantu, playing tons of hours online, talking to math based guys like the Maven, and overall just thinking poker, talking poker, playing poker, and wanting to win with a huge passion!!  Check out my BLOG at <!-- w --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.philhellmuth.com">www.philhellmuth.com</a><!-- w -->.

At the Bay 101, something just sort of clicked in, and it was this: my reading ability!  When my reading ability is sharp, I can dodge bullets, and I become a sniper with deadly accuracy.  What do I mean?  While, dodging bullets is an obvious metaphor for folding super strong hands and saving tons of chips.  Not as obvious is the sniper with deadly accuracy metaphor by which I mean that I can come over the top (three bet) at the perfect time.  If someone raises it up with a weak hand, then nine out of ten times you will win the pot with a three bet (reraise) right then and there.  If they are weak, and they decide that it is time to reraise anyway (four bet), then that’s OK too, because if you’re reading perfectly, then you just move all in (five bet) and win a ton of chips risk free!  When my reading ability is ramped up, then I am not afraid to push all in with nothing (five bet it or six bet it with nothing), and that is when I am at my most dangerous.

Because my reads were spot on, it took all the pressure off of my chip stack.  I mean, I won enough chips risk free to always be slowly building my stack, and I was particularly locked into one aggressive opponent, and because that opponent didn’t slow down, I kept accumulating chips from him!  At the end of Day Two I had the chip lead with $530,000, and on Day Three I quickly hit the $1 million mark.  On Day Three we played from 11:00 am to 1:30 am without even taking a dinner break!  But I was so zoned in that I never dipped below the $1 mark all day long, despite some turbulent times where I didn’t pick up many hands, and where I lost some chips because I had a few “Second best” hands.  During these lulls, I played super tight, and I made moves at the right times, reraising when I was locked into a read that my opponent was weak.  This caused the other players to be wary of me, and I started to receive quite a few walks.  I mean looking at me from their point of view, why raise it up when I was in the big blind, if you knew that I was going to reraise you and force you to fold your hand and surrender?  The walks helped, because each walk gave me one free round of chips (blinds and antes) to remain patient and wait for a great situation.

Picking up free chips, if you can do it, keeps things smooth and easy.  Many of you at home that try the same tactics that I am teaching you may eventually get called pre-flop by someone that is sick of you reraising them.  That means that you will have to read your opponent well again, after the flop.  So my best tactics may not be your best tactics, but you at home do need to find a way to pick up free chips if you want to becmoe a great no limit Hold’em player!

The Blind C-Bet

During Day Two at the Bay 101 WPT (World Poker Tour) championships an interesting hand came up against an interesting, and extraordinarily talented opponent.  The opponent was J. C. Tran, and he is a top-flight player in everyone’s book.  The hand happened with the blinds at $600-$1,200 with a $200 a man ante, and with me opening for $3,200 in early position with Ad-3d.  Tran kept calling raises and taking flops against me, and I decided that he was reading me pretty well.  In fact, it almost seemed to me that Tran was taking flops against me to try to take advantage of his read on me!  I have never felt this way before--like someone was playing me, not the cards--so I warned Tran that I was going to be a big favorite when the big money went in, because he was going to play a hand like 9-8 suited and get himself in serious trouble against me.  Not surprisingly, Tran called my $3,200 bet, and that’s when I decided to flip the script on him.  If Tran was closely watching my bets on the flop, and potentially gaining information about the strength of my hand, then I would bet in the dark (I call it the “Blind C bet” C = Continuation): I was going to read Tran like he was reading me. 

So I fired out $7,000 in the dark, and now I could use all of my energy focusing on Tran’s reaction to the flop, and the way that Tran put his chips into the pot.  The flop was 10d-9d-4s, and Tran moved me all in for around $60,000 total.  I quickly called, and he quickly called over tournament director Matt Savage and said, “Get that $5,000 bounty ready, the one I get for busting Phil Hellmuth!”  Then Tran flipped up the Kd-Qd, and I flipped up my hand.  Someone ran the hand on the spot, and it turned out that I was around 70% to win the pot.  [Better not hand Tran that $5,000 bounty just yet!]  The turn card was an ace, and now Tran was drawing to a jack, any jack; thus he had four wins in the deck.  I won the hand, and before the day was over, I had the chip lead with $530,000 in chips.

Tran played the hand in a pretty standard way, but what of this $7,000 “Blind C bet” that I made on the flop?  For the record, I felt like Tran had a good read on me when I was weak, and I couldn’t figure out how to defeat that read.  I tried changing up the way I bet, but every time I was weak and I bet out on the flop, Tran raised it up and forced me to fold my hand.  Of course, he may have had something every time, but either way I wasn’t going to put up with this routine for too long!  I mean, I felt like I was going to show Tran a real hand soon, but it seemed like it was taking too long to find a real hand!  So I improvised.  Thus I decided to bet before I saw the flop, so that I could focus all of my perceptive powers on Tran, and not the cards on the board.  That way, I could read him, and perhaps catch him when he raised my initial bet on the flop with a weak holding.  Or perhaps Tran would simply fold his weak hand on the flop when he couldn’t get a good read on me.  I will say this: when I made the blind C bet I was ready to go to war with Tran!  Any sign of weakness from Tran, and I was moving all in baby!