Zoom专题讨论

发几手有趣的牌,关于波动.

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 157.52 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
SB: 363.16 BB (VPIP: 20.29, PFR: 14.78, 3Bet Preflop: 8.50, Hands: 1,066)
Hero (BB): 355.52 BB
UTG: 46.6 BB (VPIP: 30.77, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 53)
MP: 159.84 BB (VPIP: 21.78, PFR: 16.16, 3Bet Preflop: 4.11, Hands: 1,282)
CO: 137.8 BB (VPIP: 27.75, PFR: 23.56, 3Bet Preflop: 10.26, Hands: 197)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has  9 T

fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players)  8 J 5
SB bets 5 BB, Hero calls 5 BB

Turn: (16 BB, 2 players)  A
SB bets 12 BB, Hero raises to 37.92 BB, SB calls 25.92 BB

River: (91.84 BB, 2 players)  5
SB checks, Hero checks

SB shows  6 3  (One Pair, Fives)
(Pre 38%, Flop 23%, Turn 34%)
Hero shows  9 T  (One Pair, Fives)
(Pre 62%, Flop 77%, Turn 66%)
Hero wins 87.72 BB

V是个韩国棒子,  河牌非常恶心,  使得我代表的55,A5o,88少了很多, 只剩下8J,A8之类的不支持overbet的牌,如果下注少了基本V任何Ax都不会弃, 反复斟酌后我放弃了诈唬,没想到Thigh收锅.      棒子在转牌有那么多更好的LINE可以打, 他选择了最差的一条.所以他这手是实实在在地输了,和波动无关.

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 129.32 BB (VPIP: 19.66, PFR: 17.98, 3Bet Preflop: 14.71, Hands: 182)
SB: 418.4 BB (VPIP: 20.28, PFR: 14.84, 3Bet Preflop: 7.74, Hands: 1,230)
BB: 201.44 BB (VPIP: 24.32, PFR: 16.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 40)
UTG: 79.2 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 16.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)
Hero (MP): 119.32 BB
CO: 185.4 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 18.88, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 204)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has  A 6

fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, fold, SB raises to 9 BB, fold, Hero calls 6.72 BB

Flop: (19 BB, 2 players)  A A 8
SB bets 11 BB, Hero calls 11 BB

Turn: (41 BB, 2 players)  K
SB bets 27 BB, Hero calls 27 BB

River: (95 BB, 2 players)  3
SB bets 90.72 BB, Hero calls 72.32 BB and is all-in

SB shows  5 7  (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 41%, Flop 3%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows  A 6  (Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 59%, Flop 97%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 231.64 BB

另一桌还是这个棒子.韩国人的风格,你示弱他就狠命锤.


PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 102.8 BB (VPIP: 18.78, PFR: 12.94, 3Bet Preflop: 2.76, Hands: 406)
SB: 183.2 BB (VPIP: 10.71, PFR: 10.71, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 30)
BB: 107.32 BB (VPIP: 22.89, PFR: 16.11, 3Bet Preflop: 7.34, Hands: 1,040)
UTG: 372.24 BB (VPIP: 22.52, PFR: 16.99, 3Bet Preflop: 10.57, Hands: 690)
Hero (MP): 207.4 BB
CO: 133.96 BB (VPIP: 55.56, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has  Q Q

fold, Hero raises to 2.68 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB raises to 12.8 BB, Hero calls 10.12 BB

Flop: (26 BB, 2 players)  7 J 6
BB bets 12.4 BB, Hero calls 12.4 BB

Turn: (50.8 BB, 2 players)  4
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (50.8 BB, 2 players)  3
BB bets 28.56 BB, Hero calls 28.56 BB

BB shows  A K  (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 46%, Flop 27%, Turn 9%)
Hero shows  Q Q  (Flush, Queen High)
(Pre 54%, Flop 73%, Turn 91%)
Hero wins 103.08 BB

canadian

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 84.92 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
Hero (SB): 113.28 BB
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 18.52, PFR: 16.93, 3Bet Preflop: 14.08, Hands: 194)
UTG: 156.8 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 6)
MP: 247.76 BB (VPIP: 21.84, PFR: 16.26, 3Bet Preflop: 3.93, Hands: 1,477)
CO: 150.24 BB (VPIP: 23.96, PFR: 15.21, 3Bet Preflop: 4.71, Hands: 219)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has  A K

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 11 BB, fold, UTG calls 8 BB

Flop: (23 BB, 2 players)  8 A Q
Hero bets 9 BB, UTG calls 9 BB

Turn: (41 BB, 2 players)  8
Hero bets 20 BB, UTG calls 20 BB

River: (81 BB, 2 players)  3
Hero bets 73.28 BB and is all-in, UTG calls 73.28 BB

Hero shows  A K  (Two Pair, Aces and Eights)
(Pre 69%, Flop 90%, Turn 97%)
UTG shows  A 7  (Two Pair, Aces and Eights)
(Pre 31%, Flop 10%, Turn 3%)
Hero wins 219.56 BB

Greek.


在过去长达一年的时间中, Allin EV的波动一直处在不利于的一边,偏离非常大, 对此我无能为力. 要提高我的游戏水平, 只能尽力分析ALLIN EV之外的波动, 以期正确认知技术水平,建立信心.


上面这几手牌, 没有在转牌前全进,不存在allin ev的波动,  但波动仍然是存在的.  今天波动站在我这一边, 这几手全赢了.  换一天同样的打法,对手不是36s,是AX.     对手不是空气是AK,   对手不是AcKc而是AsKx.  对手不是A7s而是A8AQ.  我这几手全输了(这是非常可能且经常发生的.)   

今天全赢,明天全输, 表面EV为0.
有人有雄心壮志, 说要消灭波动, 这些情况全部弃牌,EV是0,不就0波动了吗,还省抽水钱. 这当然是非常错误的理念.  无数个明天之后,这些LINE的真实EV会拨开波动的迷雾,那个就是真实的盈率.

有人说要控制波动,有人会一刀切地告诉你TPTK不要打进全部身家, 要控池.  最后AK这手为例, 如果在河牌check控池,那不论这一手结果如何,你输钱了(损失EV).也就是说不是赢或输在波动,而是真切的输了,是技术问题.    因为这里最大EV的动作是全进而不是check.  

如果一手牌下主100BB是Max EV,最后输了.这个是波动,EV不会减少.   然而你只下注80BB,最后输了,是波动同时也是错误(20BB的永久性损失,永远不会还回来).   如果因为少输了20BB而沾沾自喜,错误就会永远存在下去.

5万手,10万手的输赢数据,偏离数据根本不值得大惊小怪.  真正关切的应该是拨开波动定位真实技术水平的能力.  任何非波动性的错误,立刻马上现在就改.  


这是最近复盘学习的一点心得. 接受甚至欢迎波动在改善心态上起到了很好的作用.

波动可以坏到连续10次同样的场景都输,第11次时改变了打法,这时候真正可怕的下风来了,因为波动+错误就像龙卷风席卷一切,摧毁信心和bankroll.只有无所畏惧的心态才能坚持正确的打法.   前提是要正确认识波动,接受波动.      不要在下风期改变打法.  不管是输40,60,80个买入.  

接受波动后,  复盘的意义就非常明确了, 就是找出波动之外的错误.相当于有了一种很简便的给自己找漏洞的方法.

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 113.44 BB
SB: 106.68 BB (VPIP: 25.21, PFR: 18.91, 3Bet Preflop: 5.49, Hands: 248)
BB: 102.48 BB (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 20)
UTG: 411.16 BB (VPIP: 22.99, PFR: 17.96, 3Bet Preflop: 7.99, Hands: 753)
MP: 230.6 BB (VPIP: 17.86, PFR: 10.71, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 57)
CO: 122.84 BB (VPIP: 12.70, PFR: 8.73, 3Bet Preflop: 1.85, Hands: 127)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has  9 9

UTG raises to 2.8 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 2.8 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7 BB, 2 players)  4 T 6
UTG bets 4.48 BB, Hero calls 4.48 BB

Turn: (15.96 BB, 2 players)  7
UTG bets 12.04 BB, Hero raises to 38 BB, UTG calls 25.96 BB

River: (91.96 BB, 2 players)  A
UTG checks, Hero bets 68.16 BB and is all-in, UTG calls 68.16 BB

Hero shows  9 9  (One Pair, Nines)
(Pre 19%, Flop 10%, Turn 14%)
UTG shows  A A  (Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 81%, Flop 90%, Turn 86%)
UTG wins 220.28 BB

V 会弃掉88,99,JJ,QQ,KK,KTs,QTs,JTs. 错过的听牌. struggle with Nutted FD并且很容易犯错误, 因此,河牌的诈唬本身应该是偏中性的,有足够的FE. 诈唬的EV应该大于0,但是不会正得很多,就当是0吧.

而check的话, 我大概有20%=19BB左右.           也就是说无论输赢这手牌犯了19bb的错误=1900bb/100h

99在河牌尚且有20%的equity, 那么在转牌呢?应该接近38-40%.  所以这里的leak显而易见:"99 is too strong to semi or bluff."  由此可见T上的semi bluff范围需要重建. 33,45,56,55,78是更好的选择.

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 254.04 BB (VPIP: 18.42, PFR: 15.26, 3Bet Preflop: 8.97, Hands: 198)
Hero (SB): 142.52 BB
BB: 119.92 BB (VPIP: 19.72, PFR: 15.49, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 73)
UTG: 94.4 BB (VPIP: 23.43, PFR: 21.14, 3Bet Preflop: 13.24, Hands: 180)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 31.94, PFR: 19.44, 3Bet Preflop: 8.82, Hands: 73)
CO: 461.2 BB (VPIP: 33.65, PFR: 17.31, 3Bet Preflop: 2.17, Hands: 108)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has  K Q

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, CO calls 6 BB

Flop: (19 BB, 2 players)  9 7 Q
Hero bets 6 BB, CO calls 6 BB

Turn: (31 BB, 2 players)  T
Hero bets 32 BB, CO calls 32 BB

River: (95 BB, 2 players)  2
Hero bets 95.52 BB and is all-in, CO calls 95.52 BB

Hero shows  K Q  (Flush, King High)
(Pre 25%, Flop 56%, Turn 68%)
CO shows  K A  (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 75%, Flop 44%, Turn 32%)
CO wins 278.04 BB

这手略微有点复杂,  Flop的cbet size还有其他选项.  最近在思考OOP在动态牌面,overbet flop, overbet Turn的打法.  还不是很确定QK是不是可以overbet, KhKx可以overbet无疑.

这手,我归结于波动. 没什么问题.  

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 206 BB (VPIP: 33.06, PFR: 24.79, 3Bet Preflop: 12.00, Hands: 125)
Hero (SB): 186.64 BB
BB: 114.08 BB (VPIP: 22.37, PFR: 17.46, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 1,197)
UTG: 52.08 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
MP: 208.56 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 11)
CO: 83.48 BB (VPIP: 32.20, PFR: 11.86, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 61)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has  Q Q

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, MP calls 6 BB

Flop: (19 BB, 2 players)  5 3 2
Hero bets 6 BB, MP calls 6 BB

Turn: (31 BB, 2 players)  2
Hero bets 15 BB, MP calls 15 BB

River: (61 BB, 2 players)  9
Hero bets 64 BB, MP raises to 178.56 BB and is all-in, fold

MP wins 181 BB


河牌bet fold, 和xc.   我认为bet fold更好.   这手应该也没有什么问题.

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 378.8 BB
SB: 309.96 BB (VPIP: 15.36, PFR: 13.48, 3Bet Preflop: 8.63, Hands: 328)
BB: 211.44 BB (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
UTG: 433.88 BB (VPIP: 20.42, PFR: 19.37, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 195)
MP: 99.52 BB (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
CO: 164.12 BB (VPIP: 22.82, PFR: 16.78, 3Bet Preflop: 6.78, Hands: 309)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has  8 8

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, SB raises to 10 BB, fold, Hero calls 7.72 BB

Flop: (21 BB, 2 players)  5 6 T
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (21 BB, 2 players)  7
SB bets 12.64 BB, Hero raises to 42.56 BB, SB calls 29.92 BB

River: (106.12 BB, 2 players)  6
SB checks, Hero checks

SB shows  K K  (Two Pair, Kings and Sixes)
(Pre 81%, Flop 89%, Turn 77%)
Hero mucks  8 8  (Two Pair, Eights and Sixes)
(Pre 19%, Flop 11%, Turn 23%)
SB wins 101.36 BB

这手和上面99是同一个错误, 如果今天没有发现, 就会一直一直存在下去.  r 44,56的话会好得多.  



PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100.56 BB (VPIP: 20.21, PFR: 15.25, 3Bet Preflop: 9.69, Hands: 792)
SB: 53.08 BB (VPIP: 43.42, PFR: 17.11, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 78)
BB: 182.6 BB (VPIP: 25.76, PFR: 17.80, 3Bet Preflop: 11.67, Hands: 271)
UTG: 47.84 BB (VPIP: 5.26, PFR: 3.51, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 59)
MP: 51.96 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
Hero (CO): 332.48 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has  7 J

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, SB calls 1.88 BB, BB raises to 15 BB, Hero calls 12.72 BB, fold

Flop: (32.28 BB, 2 players)  6 7 T
BB bets 12 BB, Hero calls 12 BB

Turn: (56.28 BB, 2 players)  5
BB bets 43 BB, Hero raises to 89.12 BB, fold

Hero wins 135.88 BB


这手实际是一脉相承.  不同的是这手我觉得是正确的bluff hands.  7J很可能是领先的,但是在河牌跟不动任何下注. 这类的牌用来bluff应该是非常好的选择.

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 141.4 BB (VPIP: 25.29, PFR: 19.65, 3Bet Preflop: 3.16, Hands: 530)
SB: 209.56 BB (VPIP: 16.26, PFR: 12.23, 3Bet Preflop: 5.43, Hands: 888)
BB: 267.36 BB (VPIP: 17.24, PFR: 11.49, 3Bet Preflop: 4.84, Hands: 183)
UTG: 222.6 BB (VPIP: 35.29, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 17)
MP: 162 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 17.58, 3Bet Preflop: 7.66, Hands: 1,458)
Hero (CO): 176.08 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has  K Q

fold, MP raises to 2.72 BB, Hero calls 2.72 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1.72 BB

Flop: (8.56 BB, 3 players)  T J 9
BB checks, MP bets 4.24 BB, Hero raises to 20.88 BB, fold, MP calls 16.64 BB

Turn: (50.32 BB, 2 players)  2
MP checks, Hero bets 15.84 BB, MP calls 15.84 BB

River: (82 BB, 2 players)  5
MP checks, Hero bets 136.64 BB and is all-in, MP calls 122.56 BB and is all-in

Hero shows  K Q  (Straight, King High)
(Pre 44%, Flop 65%, Turn 77%)
MP shows  J J  (Three of a Kind, Jacks)
(Pre 56%, Flop 35%, Turn 23%)
Hero wins 319.12 BB


这手牌打得相当好.  转牌尺寸非常optimal.或许不是最optimal,但我更喜欢让对方oop用整体flop call range继续一场他没有胜算的决斗.
V made a tiny mistake otf(我认为,bet-jam, or xc 比bet-call好).  评估这里的实际EV,要看河牌发张2的话怎么处理.   双方同时拿到顶端牌的时候,胜利者多数时候都是IP.

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 148.92 BB
SB: 114.72 BB (VPIP: 16.13, PFR: 6.45, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 32)
BB: 147.04 BB (VPIP: 70.00, PFR: 70.00, 3Bet Preflop: 66.67, Hands: 10)
UTG: 101.4 BB (VPIP: 22.84, PFR: 16.13, 3Bet Preflop: 7.48, Hands: 1,051)
MP: 54.72 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 23.33, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 65)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has  Q J

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, BB raises to 9 BB, Hero calls 6.72 BB

Flop: (18.4 BB, 2 players)  J 8 4
BB bets 12 BB, Hero calls 12 BB

Turn: (42.4 BB, 2 players)  Q
BB bets 27.52 BB, Hero calls 27.52 BB

River: (97.44 BB, 2 players)  A
BB checks, Hero bets 100.4 BB and is all-in, BB calls 98.52 BB and is all-in

Hero shows  Q J  (Two Pair, Queens and Jacks)
(Pre 40%, Flop 85%, Turn 91%)
BB shows  A 9  (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 60%, Flop 15%, Turn 9%)
Hero wins 286.48 BB

我喜欢这手牌, 当波动不再潜意识里捣乱的时候,更加容易做出正确的选择.    假设这手V在河牌3rd barrel jam, 不管我call不call,谁赢. 都可以归结为波动.     

在河牌对手行动前,我毛估估QJ大概会有66%的equity. so,never fold here. 如果V jams river.  双方EV接近0. 仅仅是波动而已.

当对手check的时候,他给他自己一个用AK,Ax,KK犯错误的机会. 对V XCdefend最优化的范围的情况下EV为0.  

V在河牌的错误是非常非常严重的. 首先河牌的A和他手上的A, block掉我用AX随后过牌的组合,因此他不应该期望这里有免费showdown.  

其二:他可以像KQ,口袋对子,甚至KK要价值.如果本来计划就是三枪诈唬,那么更不应该在击中的时候停下.

其三: 他选择了最差的防守牌,9block掉我的一些诈唬组合.  可见他对MDF一无所知.

综合来说, 除了我本身66%*286=188bb的EV. 对手额外犯了100BB的错误.  所以这手牌我就认为286BB都是我的真实EV,可以排除波动.       我可以一直剥削他直到把KT放进他的过牌范围.   

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 221.6 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 18)
SB: 264.16 BB (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 42.86, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 21)
Hero (BB): 115 BB
UTG: 196.4 BB (VPIP: 17.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 3.13, Hands: 80)
MP: 248.84 BB (VPIP: 24.60, PFR: 18.25, 3Bet Preflop: 6.12, Hands: 262)
CO: 102.72 BB (VPIP: 75.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has  A 5

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, CO calls 3 BB, fold, SB calls 2.6 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (12 BB, 4 players)  T K 5
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, CO checks

Turn: (12 BB, 4 players)  5
SB bets 3.76 BB, Hero raises to 16.28 BB, fold, CO calls 16.28 BB, fold

River: (48.32 BB, 2 players)  8
Hero bets 30.48 BB, CO raises to 83.44 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 52.96 BB

CO shows  A T  (Two Pair, Tens and Fives)
(Pre 66%, Flop 93%, Turn 25%)
Hero shows  A 5  (Three of a Kind, Fives)
(Pre 34%, Flop 7%, Turn 75%)
Hero wins 207.2 BB


对手的错误, 都是稳稳的EV.    只要不在河牌出红桃的情况下犯错误.   那么就可以排除波动的影响.

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 125.8 BB (VPIP: 22.75, PFR: 17.46, 3Bet Preflop: 6.85, Hands: 197)
Hero (SB): 151.4 BB
BB: 111.24 BB (VPIP: 57.14, PFR: 42.86, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
UTG: 97.2 BB (VPIP: 35.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 20)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 22.81, PFR: 19.30, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 57)
CO: 123.2 BB (VPIP: 17.46, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 5.37, Hands: 858)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has  K K

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, Hero raises to 14 BB, fold, UTG calls 11 BB, BTN calls 11 BB

Flop: (43 BB, 3 players)  6 6 T
Hero bets 45 BB, UTG calls 45 BB, fold

Turn: (133 BB, 2 players)  8
Hero bets 92.4 BB and is all-in, UTG calls 38.2 BB and is all-in

River: (209.4 BB, 2 players)  5

Hero shows  K K  (Two Pair, Kings and Sixes)
(Pre 82%, Flop 92%, Turn 95%)
UTG shows  Q Q  (Two Pair, Queens and Sixes)
(Pre 18%, Flop 8%, Turn 5%)
Hero wins 201.4 BB


这手无论如何都是打光的.  我这里恒定的82%的平均EQUITY.    在尝试flop overbet的策略. 这手是简单的场景,没有什么参考性.        

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 101.44 BB
SB: 97 BB (VPIP: 27.71, PFR: 19.14, 3Bet Preflop: 6.85, Hands: 815)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 14.90, 3Bet Preflop: 11.22, Hands: 215)
UTG: 70.04 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
MP: 69.92 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 4)
CO: 108.28 BB (VPIP: 29.14, PFR: 23.18, 3Bet Preflop: 2.00, Hands: 153)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has  T T

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, SB raises to 7.84 BB, fold, Hero calls 5.56 BB

Flop: (16.68 BB, 2 players)  Q 5 Q
SB bets 5.24 BB, Hero calls 5.24 BB

Turn: (27.16 BB, 2 players)  6
SB bets 20.72 BB, Hero calls 20.72 BB

River: (68.6 BB, 2 players)  T
SB bets 21.64 BB, Hero raises to 67.64 BB and is all-in, SB calls 41.56 BB and is all-in

Hero shows  T T  (Full House, Tens full of Queens)
(Pre 56%, Flop 7%, Turn 5%)
SB shows  Q K  (Three of a Kind, Queens)
(Pre 44%, Flop 93%, Turn 95%)
Hero wins 187 BB


这手是单纯的波动.   区分波动和技术的就是河牌的选择, 河牌不出T的时候怎么处理,call 还是fold . 这个只有每个玩家自己心里清楚.    不出T对我来说河牌是easy fold.  所以这手就是完全的波动. 没有什么其他东西.   

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 101.36 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 6.90, Hands: 159)
SB: 105.68 BB (VPIP: 21.74, PFR: 17.39, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 71)
BB: 78.6 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 45)
UTG: 64 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 16.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 50)
Hero (MP): 116.16 BB
CO: 206.96 BB (VPIP: 20.02, PFR: 14.57, 3Bet Preflop: 7.74, Hands: 1,287)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has  4 5

fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB raises to 7.24 BB, Hero calls 4.96 BB

Flop: (14.88 BB, 2 players)  6 6 3
BB bets 14 BB, Hero calls 14 BB

Turn: (42.88 BB, 2 players)  7
BB bets 57.36 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 57.36 BB

River: (157.6 BB, 2 players)  2

BB shows  T T  (Two Pair, Tens and Sixes)
(Pre 77%, Flop 51%, Turn 9%)
Hero shows  4 5  (Straight, Seven High)
(Pre 23%, Flop 49%, Turn 91%)
Hero wins 150.52 BB


这手也是纯波动,没有技术分析的价值.