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本帖最后由 柏木雪狐 于 2018-3-7 19:55 编辑
In Long Run, We're all Dead
It would be a wonder day if the EV ad-justified and I could have been walked away with +25k profit, but thanks to 9 absurd suckout for all 70-30 or 80-20 senario, plus two 2 outers - I barely struggling for breakeven now! But okay, let's try positive thinking - there won't be this article and brain storming if I was winning!
As poker enthusiathists. we may all have seen many rise and falls of great poker players. No need to mention those tons of names, what I m concerning is , is it a long beatable game? For like 20 - 40 years?
Great hedge fund managers sold millions of their books, pointing out the inportance of holding stock for decades, or like everyone could be rich if you put effort - but who dare to say they rely on themselves totally, without the beneficery of US long-term bull market? They leverage billions of dollors which don't belongs to them, even at the worst case they could still get paid plus revenues. But how about those pathetie poker players?
They are doing exactly the same thing - taking risk as hedge fund managers, but got no pension at all and always on the edge of risking their own money. As one who've been player close to 10 years, I tried my best shot for BR management, play exclusively online, no live at all and keep myself totally away from gamblers. That granted me a relatively stable curve which may benefied for like over 1 million, but do we count what else we lost while we are grinding?
Do we need social? Do we need friends that keep supporting you? Do we need career? Do we need a plan for late 30's or 40's? Or how shall we explain our occupation to our wife, parents or child?
People always was like "In long run, this play is +EV", but for god sake, famous economist Caines said "In long run, we're all dead! "
We've seen many WSOP champion became superstar within like one weekend, then disappeared forever around poker field or even been rumor went bankcrupted. No need to mention stupid assholes like Jerry Yang or Jamie Gold, who's completely lotto ticket winner. What I concern is , how people adjusted their own life totally according to EV? There are always sth unexpected happen, both good way or bad way isn't it? It is totally reasonable that we take the goods for granted, and murmuring about the baddies forever?
I've been grinded extremley hard at poker table for those pasting 3 years, majority of time play online - I may have made some fortune, and it may be greater number if I didn't buy insurance at all. But I know, even I was unlucky back and forth on table, overall I m still pretty damn lucky one - got the opportunity coming to Sydney and enjoy some really good years, got back my nice SUV, got back my work, got back my field and a great story to write, and most importantly - a flat that I bought in late 2014! I couldn't afford it in any mean at any time, but thanks to some real kind relatives, I got it settled down exclusively under my name, with all loan setted and rented out for stable cash flow!
So what would you do if you really got lucky - either on WSOP-ME tournament or life? Moving forward isn't it?
Yesterday is history that we couldn never change, and tomorrow is mystery that we could never know. Just don't look back and moving on.
Those ONE TIME LUCK counts, and counts a lots.
Don't be too pessmistic and always thinking about long run, in long run, we\re all dead.
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