论cashgame的不可控性

if we are talking about winning Cash game, then we need to consider the swing amplitude and bankroll, the bank roll should always MUCH larger than the swing.

For example,
If you have 10,000$ for bankroll, and you play 2/5$ NL, normal swing is +-3,000,then hardly you can say you are winning, cause anytime it is easy for you to drop to less than 10,000$. like Graph A,

If you have 10,000$ for bankroll, and you play 1/2$ NL, normal swing is +-800,but you mean value of bank roll is keep increasing, like Graph B,
you can say you are a winning player.

so normally, we will say bank roll determine the level, some ppl say, to play a winning 1/2 NL, you will need to have 5,000$ bank roll at least.

打牌一年多，最初就是打cashgame，后来逐渐打mtt，cashgame输钱多了，逐渐悟出一点似是而非的道理，说说与大家讨论。
cashgame的输赢往往取决于大pot的对决。在一些小pot上你费尽心机，运用技巧得来的几十bb往往经不住一手大牌的打击。在nl100以上的级别里，乱打的鱼越来越少，大的pot往往双方都有牌力，最后哪个能赢，往往要看上帝的心情。比如你aa和对手kk在preflop前allin，转牌的一个k击溃了你，kk也很无奈，要是知道你aa说什么我也不和你all；aa更惨，绝对领先可是。。。。昨天还看了这样一把牌，flop5 6 7，一家77，一家88，77下注88反加，77all88跟，你说哪方打的不对，都势成骑虎，河牌的一个4，让77跌入地狱。打到一定水平，大家都不会乱来，那种拿个顶对就敢和对手死拼是不会发生的（bluff除外，因为bluff是一种手段），我们每个人都有赢得很爽的记录，也有输的很惨的经历，这些时间长了我就逐渐感到他的不可控性，不像下棋，我算的比你深，看的比你远就可以掌控局势，扑克里面永远做不到这样，领先不代表必赢，落后不代表必输。再者我对online的cashgame还是心存疑虑的（牌力分配的调控，没有证据，打多了的直觉和道听途说），所以我感到online的cashgame真是很难玩，不是你自己努力、认真、少喝酒就能长期盈利的。我们好像被无形的手所掌控，一阵赢、一阵输，来来去去反反复复的折磨着，春恨秋悲皆自惹！！我打算暂时告别cash，等我想明白了看透了再回来，专心打mtt，抓一抓稀少的大鱼。

难道MTT就没有波动了吗。是，比如，你玩10元买进，这一场怎么也不会输20.可你打这个的奉献是，你运气不好的时候可能连续100场见不到钱，那不是也输了很多了吗.我到觉得玩锦标赛不要更多的运气。因为一般说来，你必须进入很好的名词才能赢到钱。第一赢最多。你想，你哪一次赢第一不需要严重偏好的运气。你要经历对K杀对A，AQ 杀AK，而且要好多次这样案例的人最后才能拿冠军。而打现金，不需要这么好的运气。正常的运气肯定能赢钱，偏差一些也可以赢。只有特别差才会输。
特别差就是，比如，连续输10个50-50的东西，同花兆10个一个都不成。自己追别人10次没追上，别人追你一次就追上了，一晚上2次KK遇到AA都输了，又有一次自己AA遇到KK，又输给KK了等，这样就是最坏的运气。如果不是这样，我就能赢。

还有， MTT需要大块的专注时间， 不适合"忙里偷闲"的人。

[quote="duanying":2c36xbmf]打牌一年多，最初就是打cashgame，后来逐渐打mtt，cashgame输钱多了，逐渐悟出一点似是而非的道理，说说与大家讨论。
cashgame的输赢往往取决于大pot的对决。在一些小pot上你费尽心机，运用技巧得来的几十bb往往经不住一手大牌的打击。在nl100以上的级别里，乱打的鱼越来越少，大的pot往往双方都有牌力，最后哪个能赢，往往要看上帝的心情。比如你aa和对手kk在preflop前allin，转牌的一个k击溃了你，kk也很无奈，要是知道你aa说什么我也不和你all；aa更惨，绝对领先可是。。。。昨天还看了这样一把牌，flop5 6 7，一家77，一家88，77下注88反加，77all88跟，你说哪方打的不对，都势成骑虎，河牌的一个4，让77跌入地狱。打到一定水平，大家都不会乱来，那种拿个顶对就敢和对手死拼是不会发生的（bluff除外，因为bluff是一种手段），我们每个人都有赢得很爽的记录，也有输的很惨的经历，这些时间长了我就逐渐感到他的不可控性，不像下棋，我算的比你深，看的比你远就可以掌控局势，扑克里面永远做不到这样，领先不代表必赢，落后不代表必输。再者我对online的cashgame还是心存疑虑的（牌力分配的调控，没有证据，打多了的直觉和道听途说），所以我感到online的cashgame真是很难玩，不是你自己努力、认真、少喝酒就能长期盈利的。我们好像被无形的手所掌控，一阵赢、一阵输，来来去去反反复复的折磨着，春恨秋悲皆自惹！！我打算暂时告别cash，等我想明白了看透了再回来，专心打mtt，抓一抓稀少的大鱼。

难道MTT就没有波动了吗。是，比如，你玩10元买进，这一场怎么也不会输20.可你打这个的奉献是，你运气不好的时候可能连续100场见不到钱，那不是也输了很多了吗/[/quote:2c36xbmf]

I play LHE cash game.  My impression is that cash game is pretty low in variance.  You can run through up or down wings of 500 bb a few times a year.  If you play 500k hands with a win rate of 1bb/100, you make 5000bb that can easily overwhelm the swings.  If you are playing a modest $10/20 game, you would make $100k/year (before RB plus any benefits).  From what I hear the variance is even less in NL.  I would think you need to look beyond one particular situation to compare cash vs MTTs.  More of the earning in MTTs is from a few big scores which seems to mean very high variance (just my speculation since I dont play MTTs).

If your goal is to make a nice income in poker, I would really think cash game is the way to go.   It is not that hard to be able to make $50k a year which is nice income for someone from China, imo.  The key to success in cash game is to beat games at high enough stake where rake is not as dominant a factor.  For LHE anything below $10/20 is tough because of the rake.  Same with the low level NL game.

Variance is your friend.  You need to accept and understand it.  You always need to think in terms of expectation.  The particular example should not bother you once you do.  Play long enough you will be on both ends of coin flips so you dont win or lose from coin flips.  The word that goes with expectation is Reciprocality (Tommy Angelo), like you are less likely to be staked for a top pair hand than your opponents when the situation is reversed.

IF MTT players over 100,it become a gambling,you need pretty good luck to get decent money, you need to play many tables.

if MTT player over 1,000 it become a lotta.

but some SNG, or three or four table MTT, it is more controllable by your skill.