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楼主: 柏木雪狐
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2017 - Poker Resolution

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501#
 楼主| 柏木雪狐 发表于 2017-6-20 17:28:34 | 只看该作者
500贴了 粉丝福利TIPS

现金不要过度操作小对子,成长性比结构牌/two overs差很多

Example:

1. +1 open, hero btn call 77. Flop 349r, V check. Hero bet 1/3 pot, V c-r pot, hero call.

Turn 9, V bet 1/2 pot, hero想了半天 还是觉得没货

river blank, c- c

V AA

你也不知道他C-R的逻辑是什么,但就这么莫名其妙被valuetown了两条街,而且因为有showdown value还没转成诈唬。

我觉得postflop pockets 弱处理比较好,check back ini postion, fold if there's A/K on table.
502#
 楼主| 柏木雪狐 发表于 2017-6-20 23:44:55 | 只看该作者
本帖最后由 柏木雪狐 于 2017-6-21 01:20 编辑

so far for June

ID 1:  -3709  1098 hands
ID 2:  46853 1093 hands
ID 3:  -18127 3529 hands
ID 4:  1091    3652 hands
net: 26108

本来能比这个高不少,在一个10/20老板局掉了十个买入

老板头太硬 而且每次硬币都能赢

盈亏同源吧
503#
 楼主| 柏木雪狐 发表于 2017-6-21 11:13:09 | 只看该作者
本帖最后由 柏木雪狐 于 2017-6-21 11:17 编辑

久坐不动 缺乏锻炼 昨天打了16个小时没吃饭 今天早上骑车到单位 不到十公里差点低血糖从车上掉下来
闲话少说 进驻正题

Episode 8 现金与比赛

为了表示我们的思维,我们只做一个简单的示例来说明问题

50/100/25, All fold to hero at btn, eff 4500, raise to 400 with TT. Btn Grinder 3-bet to 1300, all fold to hero, action?

我觉得如果选手能解决这样的问题,就能很好的在现金和比赛中生存。

下面说说我的思路。

我们认定Grinder是优秀的REG,他偶尔会在这里用A2s-A5s和66-99半诈唬,大多数时候是非常标准的3bet range, 比如AQs+,TT+. 对上他的整体range,hero没有优势,而call也不是很好的选择,因为flop会有超过50%的概率发出帽子(准确来说应该是56%左右),所以这就像是我们之前说的,回到了一个经经典的raise or fold处境来。如果我们在这里jam,敌人比我们弱的range全部会扔掉,比我们强的range里,JJ-AA crush我们,其他牌是翻硬币,这个无论是对于比赛和现金都是相同的。

好,我们现在再进一步,hero jam, V call, 亮出AKs.

hero可能松了一口气,不是JJ+,preflop是个翻硬币,那么这个决定我似乎没有做错。

事实真的如此吗?

我们不用计算器也可以得出,这里是一个经典的50-50情况。将结果运行一万次,得到的EV接近于0. 如果hero扛下四张之后忍不住买点保险,那这里的决定带来的EV甚至还是负的,如果你自诩是职业选手, long run这里丢失的EV是非常可观的。

让我们来说说,如果是比赛,这里有什么变化?

比赛和现金不同的是,比赛你所冒险的是你的筹码,因为你的报名费参赛前就已经确定了;但是现金你所冒险的是你的本金。在比赛前期,翻硬币无伤大雅,因为倒数第一出局和泡沫出局并没什么区别;在比赛后期,尤其在Final Table上,你本来就已经有奖金入账,这里如果赢了一个key coinflip,你夺冠的机会就很大,冠军奖金可能是第九名的十倍,可能是钱圈的数百倍。如果你错了,那么你还有20%的机会翻盘;如果你对了,敌人扔了半诈唬,你凭空多出大概十几个盲注,这对于你在FT后期进行压榨打法大有裨益。

这就是我想说的,一个在现金EV上接近于零甚至是负的决策,在比赛里却可能是正的。

很不科学吗?事实上心理学家对此早有阐述,名称正是“赌场盈利效应” [House money effect]



我认为如果是现金,这里fold TT, 用QQ+,AKo+去4bet jam是合理的打法。但如果是比赛,我会用TT选择全下。

结论:

好的对冲基金经理用别人的钱去冒险,好的比赛选手用已经到手的奖金冒险,而好的现金选手则看好自己的本金。

因为你可以赢五次,十次,一百次,一万次,却只能破产一次。

504#
 楼主| 柏木雪狐 发表于 2017-6-21 16:01:44 来自手机 | 只看该作者
Updated

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505#
t54352 发表于 2017-6-21 16:28:11 | 只看该作者
柏木雪狐 发表于 2017-6-21 11:13
久坐不动 缺乏锻炼 昨天打了16个小时没吃饭 今天早上骑车到单位 不到十公里差点低血糖从车上掉下来
闲话少 ...

这个帖子分析得很好,TT被3bet应该扔,我几次QQ遇到紧手3bet没有扔,但输的多。QQ-的牌遇到好手的reraise是劣势。我最近大概8次KK一次没赢,其中今天就发生KK输给set3,输了60BB,接着AK顶两对输给set4 60BB,然后就离桌了,不想打。我是没办法解决这些问题,遇到紧凶reg KK、AA这样的牌在遇到rasie反抗的时候我们多半已经输了,但因为是60-

80BB的短筹码,还是要支付出去,一个session也许就一两次KK+,输了很不舒服,又没办法解决,这是扑克的属性。

506#
 楼主| 柏木雪狐 发表于 2017-6-22 13:42:35 | 只看该作者
本帖最后由 柏木雪狐 于 2017-6-22 13:48 编辑

极为不爽的在屋子里闷坐了一上午,都没去上班

可能是因为长期打牌的原因,不需要刻意的去讨好别人,所以长此以往情商也变低了。今天早上起来听到了一条CGL被抄的消息,也没来得及核实,就随口在智游城大群里信口一问,这下可好,不到半个小时CGL负责人亲自来质问,我一下傻眼了,这才知道整个扑克圈都传开了,负责人的微信电话几乎被打爆了

事已至此,只能现在群里澄清,谴责散布和造谣的人,然后给负责人道歉,除了等待下文也没什么太好的办法,不然越描越黑

我他妈上次打MTT赢的奖品还在那儿没领呢,这下估计要黄了

真的太sb这事 就这么随口一问 也没自己的利害关系 无端端引火烧身

造谣一张嘴 辟谣跑断腿

这事发生不是一次两次了,以前LY在微博指责ZYX带了八国联军进来,我只是随手点了一下转发,当天LSX就来质问我为什么帮着LY说话
我他妈已经很小心谨慎了好吗 国内线下局和比赛的事情我是一律不参与 再甜也不打 只和网络以及有原则的鬼佬打交道

以后八卦狗血和负面消息我是一概不传

507#
 楼主| 柏木雪狐 发表于 2017-6-22 23:41:05 | 只看该作者
本帖最后由 柏木雪狐 于 2017-6-22 23:51 编辑

My aplogozize for replying the following content in English, it's like sorts of encrypted but currently this might be the best solution i thought out, cuz I really need to dig a hole to write it down.

_________________

Before I literally deleted pokermaster app for around 17th time, I probably made around 1.3m - 1.4m subtotall during the pasting 14 months, not that accurately cuz I stopped recording in Profit Tracker since I breakthrough the 1m milstone. Games are literally getting tougher, and many lvl 1 fish died or disappeared, lots of new young guns came into sight, with an average winning for more than 300K life, and I've even seen one unprecedently with +1m record in a singal account, named "AlphaGo", definitely a monsterous Grinding colossal.

What kind of path did I went through? You can all follow my thread and found out what happened, which I hope would be more meaningful than JianShe's post couples of years ago, kinda of taught me a lot (especially for not playing those notorious underground games) even though he's in jail now. My affluent winning supported me to rent a luxurious flat with my roomate, plus a Telsa and suppport lovely girlfriend to get a life. I m quite satisfied with my current life quality.

But somehow, those negative effect keep torturing me as well. And as my villain soon start getting tougher, the game's becoming drier and swing more furiously. I have to confess for this month, already much harded than the most lucractive April which I grinded out 250k+, for this month combined with busy word and intensive grinding session (at least 5 days 16+hrs constant on table, long-term sitting even hurt my back). Many times I SHOULD be on work or dealing with proper issues in company, but I didn't just cuz I digged a hole on the graph so I MUST come back over the top WITH ANY COST.

This dedication/determination/sturbborn spirits killed my schedudle totally. I postponed everything I could just in case I could grinded it out more 30mins on table. It drains my life energy and inspired me to be more greedy. a non-stop stuck on table til 3AM, til 5AM or even total stay-up, made me like a total-zombie-look in the next following day.

People always saying diligence paid off, they might be right on Sports, but Poker - very diversified. I can make a profit til now, even many talanted young guns have joined - basically cuz there are still on-tilt fish or even REGS. They know fine about skills, but have absolutely no idea about emotion/underwater control. They never got a tilt-breaker in their mind, which costs them hundreds of thousands in a short-period of time. I've very aware or this, and take advantage by exclusively playind those less than 30 mins endgames, and that's the key how I could always recover within 48 hours.

I confess many people w high EQs made much more than myself by playing those so juicy private boss games, but it's just not my way of living. Just the day I m typeing, two of my well-knowns buddies - both got flashy tourney winning (+$500k) on EPT/macau, were in custody just cuz they get involoved in dangerous private games. Nothing could save them now cuze this time the wagers is WAY TOO MUCH TO HANDLE, the police surely won't let them fly under the radar for this time and they literally in big trouble.

The booming of Chinese online poker era have literally saved lots of semi-pros life like me, the door is open and surely we won't miss this opportunity to kick the ball. But surely every gain comes with cost, and now I got absolutely no motivation to improvve my work and it's a total mess for recent days, just cuz I behaved pretty well in GPL China, took down two titles so the company still won't kicked me out, but I surely know I was exactly at the buttom line.  

Unconsciously, I count my time by hours, by minutes, not by day/monthlys salary. My salary is around 130k-150k per months (improved from 100k last year), but my interal hourly income is around 1300-1500/hours. So if this morning I don't have any "emergency issues" to deal with, I normally multi-tabling for grinding and it "would be a nice moring" if I grinded it out 4k. Somehow not everyday supposed to be that smooth, and I definitely digging holes by some bad running/brutal suckout/coolers, and it won't be surpised if I -25k within two hours. Not a bad day yet since I still got the afternoon - but it only be proven that I WON'T doing any work-related issued before I breakeven.

Do you reckon that's a normal human being's lifestyle? Or the most ideal poker pro's life?

Aren't it suppoed to be like cool/leisure/fashionble style - not like nerdy Phil Galfond's - but Antonio Esfandiari's ?  

________________________

I write down this artile not for murmuring, but I m just fxxx yelling. I surely don't let poker control my life but unfortunately it is how thing happened - especially those juicy cash games, it grasped me, phsicailly and mentally, tempting me, filrting me, and made me not going anywhere.

Winners always want more, and losers want to breakeven. That's how this dark game - like Daniel Colman says - running like non-stop Wall Street.

Sorry for wasting you time guys, I use another lauguage just want to prove at least I m not that degenerated - and at least I learned sth even I ended up drop out of school and missed my master degree.

I got some reputaion cuz of my nanonoko's type graph, but like many ordinary people, I also hope I could ENJOY Sherlock series, videos games, girlfriend, or even SEX - but I failed to enjoy. The pure grinding value spirit has turned my into an pure EV machine - calculating exactly like ropot and put a tag on everything that potentially could be traded.

Literally I already fighting to take back my happiness for quite long time - even though I seemingly already got everything I need. But Greedy, is always haunting,  hopfully I could stop it before it devoured my life. Does MTT player lives happier, or cash gamers? IDK - it looks like those rich smart amateurs are all quite happy.
508#
失意的ORC 发表于 2017-6-23 15:42:44 来自手机 | 只看该作者
以我的英语水平,看这么一大段,实在是太累了。。。
509#
 楼主| 柏木雪狐 发表于 2017-6-25 02:47:46 | 只看该作者
柏木雪狐 发表于 2017-6-20 23:44
so far for June

ID 1:  -3709  1098 hands

updated for intensive working June, no time on talbe

ID 1:  - 25387 4186 hands
ID 2:  +46973 4333 hands
ID 3:  +33125 4346 hands
ID 4:  -   3709 1098 hands
510#
tom_dwan_佳 发表于 2017-6-25 15:06:17 | 只看该作者
楼主是个大紧B
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