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本帖最后由 三脚架 于 2016-8-11 23:27 编辑
先从pre说起
5bet shove with AK
PokerStars - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BB: 93.76 BB (VPIP: 19.07, PFR: 14.42, 3Bet Preflop: 1.22, Hands: 221)
UTG: 110.96 BB (VPIP: 19.23, PFR: 19.23, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
UTG+1: 168.52 BB (VPIP: 17.59, PFR: 13.43, 3Bet Preflop: 6.17, Hands: 217)
MP: 95.08 BB
MP+1: 104.6 BB (VPIP: 17.48, PFR: 14.34, 3Bet Preflop: 9.40, Hands: 289)
MP+2: 104.16 BB (VPIP: 14.67, PFR: 9.65, 3Bet Preflop: 5.41, Hands: 266)
CO: 101 BB (VPIP: 16.26, PFR: 11.65, 3Bet Preflop: 3.41, Hands: 457)
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 92.16 BB (VPIP: 19.35, PFR: 12.90, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 35)
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A K
fold, UTG+1 raises to 3 BB, fold, MP+1 calls 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, fold, UTG+1 raises to 27 BB, fold, Hero raises to 100 BB and is all-in, UTG+1 calls 73 BB
Flop: (204.4 BB, 2 players) 4 2 3
Turn: (204.4 BB, 2 players) 8
River: (204.4 BB, 2 players) 8
UTG+1 shows A A (Two Pair, Aces and Eights)
(Pre 93%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows A K (One Pair, Eights)
(Pre 7%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)
UTG+1 wins 196.4 BB
pre ep open 我sqz 对面4bet 这时AK5bet 属于绝命bluff 留下的都是AKQQ+,4bet bluff的都走了 这里不是推的好时机
比如这里 open=3BB 由于有一个caller, 我的3bet=12BB, 对手4bet=27BB, 先不论对手有什么牌, 首先就是对手这时已经放进pot里面27BB, 如果我5bet shove, 对手是call 73 to 204.5=35.69% 如果用AK QQ vs AK, QQ+=39.8%, 也就是对手几乎翻前套池, 如果是AK QQ vs AKs, QQ*50%=30.5%, 对手仍然可以丢, 如果是AK QQ vs KK+=19%, 这里对手call上来肯定是-ev的.
从我们的角度, 对手4bet, 我们5bet shove, EV是多少呢?
先说对手4bet的range: AAKK 100%, QQ 50%, AK33%, bluff combo=4=AQ 2/16, JJ 1/6, X=1
然后说5bet+拼命的: AA,KK 100% QQ=66%, AK 66%
计算Blocker, 则
手持AK, AK,QQ+的combo=
AA,KK=6,QQ=3, AK=3, 共计12.+4 bluff combo=16
拼命combo=AAKK 3, QQ=2. AK=2.=5 对手5bet+概率=7/16
AKovs拼命combo的equity=29.2% vs 70.8%
AKsvs拼命combo的equity=33% vs 67.0%
AKo=9/16*(27+3+1.5)-7/16*41.6BB=17.72-18.2=-0.48BB
AKs=17.72-7/16*34.0BB=14.875=2.8BB
手持QQ, AK,QQ+的combo=
AA,KK=12,QQ=1, AK=5, 共计18+4 bluff combo=22
拼命combo=AAKK 12, QQ=1. AK=3 对手5bet+概率=16/22
QQvs拼命combo的equity=27.3% vs 72.7%
QQ=6/22*31.5-16/22*45.4=8.6BB-33.01BB=-25.01BB
也就是除了AKs AKo和QQ几乎都是-ev的, 以前没注意这个是因为在微级别很多人都犯错, 所以彼此之间就像cooler一样, 但是在NL25就不同了, 这么打AKQQ几乎是犯错。
PokerStars - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (UTG): 100 BB
UTG+1: 101.28 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
MP: 77.2 BB (VPIP: 3.85, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
CO: 119.24 BB (VPIP: 19.56, PFR: 15.43, 3Bet Preflop: 1.48, Hands: 375)
BTN: 101.28 BB (VPIP: 17.24, PFR: 17.24, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 29)
SB: 79 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 10.34, PFR: 10.34, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 29)
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K A
Hero raises to 3.48 BB, UTG+1 calls 3.48 BB, MP raises to 18 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 100 BB and is all-in, fold, MP calls 59.2 BB and is all-in
Flop: (159.28 BB, 2 players) 9 5 9
Turn: (159.28 BB, 2 players) 9
River: (159.28 BB, 2 players) 4
Hero shows K A (Three of a Kind, Nines)
(Pre 7%, Flop 4%, Turn 1%)
MP shows A A (Full House, Nines full of Aces)
(Pre 93%, Flop 96%, Turn 99%)
MP wins 152.12 BB
这手前位open, 被后位77BB鱼型玩家3bet 至18BB, 这里其实丢了也可以。首先没有弃牌率,然后
VS AK, QQ+, JJ*66%, TT*50%,
AK EV=41.6-58.4*77BB=-13BB
QQ EV=48.7-51.3*77BB=-2BB
怎么看怎么都是输的 同样的,需要的死钱(纯死钱)在100BB需要
AK=16BB, QQ=2.6 BB 这还是对阵纯鱼需要的equity
PokerStars - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
MP+1: 106.4 BB (VPIP: 29.17, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 24)
CO: 84.2 BB (VPIP: 34.04, PFR: 12.77, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 47)
BTN: 122 BB (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)
SB: 117.4 BB (VPIP: 26.32, PFR: 15.79, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 18.25, PFR: 15.44, 3Bet Preflop: 0.96, Hands: 289)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 21.41, PFR: 15.03, 3Bet Preflop: 6.11, Hands: 444)
Hero (UTG+1): 127.28 BB
MP: 110.24 BB (VPIP: 19.15, PFR: 10.64, 3Bet Preflop: 4.44, Hands: 191)
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K A
fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, MP raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 25 BB, MP raises to 110.24 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 85.24 BB
Flop: (221.88 BB, 2 players) 3 T T
Turn: (221.88 BB, 2 players) 8
River: (221.88 BB, 2 players) K
Players agreed to run it twice.
Flop #2: (221.88 BB, 2 players) 8 2 4
Turn #2: (221.88 BB, 2 players) 3
River #2: (221.88 BB, 2 players) J
Hero shows K A (Two Pair, Kings and Tens)
Board #1 (Pre 50%, Flop 48%, Turn 50%)
(High Card, Ace)
Board #2 (Pre 50%, Flop 52%, Turn 50%)
MP shows A K (Two Pair, Kings and Tens)
Board #1 (Pre 50%, Flop 52%, Turn 50%)
(High Card, Ace)
Board #2 (Pre 50%, Flop 48%, Turn 50%)
Hero wins 53.48 BB
Hero wins 53.48 BB
MP wins 53.48 BB
MP wins 53.44 BB
这手打出去25BB 对手要5bet shove 这里call 还是fold? 这里是没办法了 call 85 to 220 即38% 几乎是break even call
这里是面对AK, QQ+, 但是哪怕对手怂一点点, 这个call也是-ev的。简单来说call, fold 都是可以的, 翻前丢了其实没错的。
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PokerStars - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (CO): 100 BB
BTN: 112.56 BB (VPIP: 21.39, PFR: 15.95, 3Bet Preflop: 8.29, Hands: 543)
SB: 109.72 BB (VPIP: 13.86, PFR: 10.89, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 102)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 16.30, PFR: 11.41, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 185)
UTG: 104.08 BB (VPIP: 16.00, PFR: 16.00, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 25)
UTG+1: 100 BB (VPIP: 9.24, PFR: 7.61, 3Bet Preflop: 4.62, Hands: 187)
MP: 75.44 BB (VPIP: 17.44, PFR: 11.63, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 88)
MP+1: 105.12 BB (VPIP: 16.98, PFR: 12.26, 3Bet Preflop: 6.82, Hands: 216)
MP+2: 55.8 BB (VPIP: 22.45, PFR: 16.33, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 49)
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K K
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, SB raises to 14 BB, fold, Hero raises to 34 BB, BTN raises to 112.56 BB and is all-in, SB calls 95.72 BB and is all-in, fold
Flop: (254.44 BB, 2 players) T 5 9
Turn: (254.44 BB, 2 players) J
River: (254.44 BB, 2 players) 2
SB shows A A (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 81%, Flop 87%, Turn 95%)
BTN shows 4 4 (One Pair, Fours)
(Pre 19%, Flop 13%, Turn 5%)
SB wins 246.44 BB
最后一首应该是是弃错了 但是确实觉得BB玩家不是简单的sqz resteal 而是拿到绝对意义的大牌 而且btn也有可能是AA 埋伏然后直接shove 反正这手我也是很无奈的 哎 我就觉得他有AA了 弃错活该吧
但是这里够不够call呢?
66 to 300=22%, 实际equity=20.8% 所以这里还是做了+ev 的fold的, 但是真的好痛苦. 如果翻前打出40BB,剩下60BB, 就是break even了, 可以一搏。
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