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下风期的时候大家都做点啥？
刚才在Brain Townsend的博客里看到他谈论最近的在PLO里遇到的down swing，和大家分享一下现全文摘抄如下
February 01, 2010
Frustration
The past two months have been incredibly frustrating for me. Below are my PLO results from the past two months.
As you can see I played 36k hands and in terms of all in EV I should be up 440k but instead I am stuck 2.75 million dollars. I noticed this yesterday and was feeling pretty sorry for myself. In theory I would like it to not bother me, but it does bother me and effects my life out side of poker.
After wallowing in my own self pity yesterday for a few hours I finally got control of my emotions and realized that this isn't something in my control and something I shouldn't let effect me or my life. That helped and I was feeling better again until I sat down today and lost about 500k in 250 hands. Again the losses were in the big bet games and primarily my best game PLO.
What I find most frustrating is how the game I am by far best in, PLO, I can lose so much and games that I have just learned within a few months I am having good winning results in. After all this time one would think these things wouldn't bother me and that I would be unphased by these blips in variance. That's great in theory but in practice these blips that last month at such huge stakes take a toll.
To counter my run at PLO here are my results at Stud since I started learning the game in August. My winrate is a bit messed up because of the antes on stars but looking just at FTP I have a .5 bb/100 and have won more in less hands on stars. I would estimate my bb/100 should be between .75 and 1.
In my life I have played 17,420 hands of Stud and done very little analysis on the game. I have been focusing on Stud 8, razz and O8. I only recently got a coach in Stud and have only worked with him for one session. Stud is by far my worst game yet I am still doing very very well in it, while getting crushed in PLO.
I think what I am facing is what makes poker and in particular PLO such a beautiful game. I think games with variance built into them are so much better than games with no variance modifier. In chess there is always an optimum move. In the same way poker has an optimum move or decision as well, but its often much much harder to see that or even think about that correct decision as there is so much fluctuation that its tough to tell if that move is correct. To learn by trail and error is incredibly time consuming in poker and takes years to master a game.
I have two apps on my iphone, a chess app and a backgammon one. I find myself almost never playing the chess one and constantly playing the backgammon one. When I was a young boy I was very good at chess and it was the first game I loved. I played it constantly and not to brag to much won a small scholarship to college by winning a chess tournament [s:149]. I had never played backgammon until I got the app on my phone.
So why do I almost exclusively play backgammon and almost never play chess on my iphone? I believe its because I never win in chess. The program I play gets tougher each time you play it and I have reached the point where I just never beat it. In backgammon my skill is much much less than in chess but I win about 40%-45% of games because of luck revolving around rolling the die.
When I lose in chess there is no one to blame but myself. I can't say I somehow got unlucky, I have to admit I was out played. In backgammon I can always say the die went against me or that the computer cheated and rolled what it needed. I like to think of myself as an analytical person who would realize that the computer was making better decisions than me in backgammon. But the reality is its far easier to say that I am just rolling poorly and losing because I am getting unlucky.
I guess the point I am trying to make is (I know my blog gets a bit preachy at times) that I shouldn't be incredibly frustrated by this terrible run, but should appreciate it. Its this variance that creates the illusion to people that they are winning poker players. Its this variance that has given action and made millions of dollars for me over the years. As Phil Helmuth says "If there weren't luck I would win everyone." and although this may be the case its this luck or variance that makes poker such an amazing game and why weaker opponents continue to play strong ones. Without this luck I would still be in grad school in a dark lab or office working on my PhD a much unhappier person than I am today. I hope for the rest of today I can appreciate my downswing and what these downswings have brought me. |
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