我是jimmyfish──PLO核心技術探討

这段时间玩牌时间很少,其实我每玩50手牌，就可能有至少1个不大不小的问题,而小问题是每手都有,只好辛苦了几米老哥，老朱等诸高手。
初哥牌例6  战略撤退　
[NL2 6max  100BB]
我在CO位置持有如下这手牌，感觉挺垃圾但前面有两人入锅加上位置所以我跟入。小盲也跟，４人竞争。
flop:  小盲率先下注, 后面两位都跟, 我有不太强的听花和坚果的听顺，所以跟一手。
turn: 小盲继续下pot, 后面两位继续全跟,  我??
这里我考虑三人都有牌或者听牌的情况下, 我的听花感觉上很弱，外加自己多拿掉一个outs,所以我强迫自己无视花，那么我只有６个坚果的听牌, pod odds是1:4 ,不考虑implied odds的话我比例不合适，所以弃牌，请教这里弃牌和跟注哪个好一点?
谢谢

初哥牌例7:  俯首称臣
[NL2 6max 60BB]
这首同样在CO 位置拿到如下的牌,前面两人跟入， 自我感觉这牌质量尚可，外加位置关系，所以加注入局。两人跟，３人竞争。

FLop : 对手抢先发难bet pot, 　这里我的牌和桌面联系得不太欢畅，但总有机会，也可能是当前最大，此时我考虑过一下要re-pot 但由于筹码尚浅想多多利用位置优势所以跟注。　(问题１: 这里可以repot吗?)

Turn: 一张顺子组合的牌虽然让我多了4个出张6但6很可能已经不是nuts。 我觉得如果对手在翻牌用wrap来下注，那么现在也成牌，如果用3条我也落后，基本上我赢不了任何牌，而赔率也不够我去draw FH,所以我选择弃牌。

问题2: Turn是好的弃牌吗??  这牌在flop上应该打得更激进一点吗。

谢谢。

呵呵，看了大家，尤其是RichZhu这么热烈的回复，那我也来说下我的看法
先说下那个UTG+2的老外吧,我认为这把牌他打的不错，但也不像楼主说的那么好，有点过于推崇了
在翻牌圈前面两家各下了一个POT,这时他有两个都算正确的选择
第一个选择，平跟，由于他有位置和筹码深度，就算转牌对他没帮助，都可以很舒服的再跟一轮看到河牌，这绝对是个不错的选择
第二个选择，就像他实战中那样的加注，但加注的幅度有讲究，这个老外把握的很好，如果POT到5W那就SB大了，这样的话就给了BB一个很好反推到17W几乎是全进的机会，反倒得不偿失。我认为他这里加注到2-3W都可以，暂不相信对手有8T,试探下对手的牌力，同时争夺主导权，这样的话，BB如果想推也推不干净，如果BB平跟，再看转牌的情况再做决定，如果转牌不利很可能还可以看张免费的河牌。不过相对于第一个选择，也有不利的地方，就是实战中如果BB真反推到11W，这时这个老外也很难做决定，因为对他来讲他的赔率可能就有点不够了，由于正如楼主所说的，他对对手有阅读，这两种选择我认为5.5比4.5吧，几乎对半开，我认为第二种选择稍好些
再说下那个BB,在这种翻牌面上，这时同样有两种都算正确的选择，过牌和POT，我认为同样是五五开，不过由于那个后面的老外筹码太深，其实过牌还是稍好些。实战中他选择POT，被后位反加到3W，这时他有三个选择
一，弃牌，我认为手拿暂时的NUTS,面对这种小幅的加注，这个选择太弱
二，平跟，如果他没有REDRAW,这到是个正常的选择，看转牌再做决定
三，反加，如果有REDRAW，反加到11W，把自己和对手套进来。顺便说一句，看了楼主的回复，我引用下“我很懷疑，就算BB拿著QT8x，有nuts加小的redraw，也未必夠膽推。或者有nuts加聽小花，亦未必敢。”，这个我不同意楼主的观点，我认为BB有QT8x或加聽小花，完全可以反推，前者可以有8TK可提升牌力，后者可以买花提升牌力或者阻断对手买更大的花，不管那个老外有什么牌，完全值得和他一赌，因为对手的那个3W而不是5W的加注太可疑。如果BB真的拿这这种牌却不敢反推的话，我只能说她打的太软了
最后说下那个UTG，呵呵，我只能说正是由于他的愚蠢，才凸显的那个老外的无比正确
面对BB的POT，拿着小暗3平跟下问题不大，问题出在BB平跟那个3W的加注后他的全进，其实这里他可以EASY FOLD,通过后位的加注及BB的平跟，很容易读出对手应该各拿着8T和大的暗3，就算这种推断有出入，应该也不会太离谱，这时对她来说就是听死牌了，但不管怎么说他这时的全进实在有点疯狂。唯一让他勉强+EV的情况就是对手都拿着8T这样的牌同时跟进她的全进，但通过对手前面的行动还是从概率上来讲并不像是这种牌，如果他是这么想的话，那我只能认为他过于有想象力了

回复 403# jxxiaobing

我觉得你的分析不错，很多话我也想说，不过表达能力和分析能力不行，只能看看。

吉米兄，这是我看到的最精彩的牌局讨论，我跟你们学习到很多东西，希望城里高手能把这次讨论整理出来。

这一点我在前面已经解释过了，这手牌不能用通常的牌局来考量：1）筹码没有看上去那么深，2）BB是“最好牌 ...
RichZhu 发表于 2010-10-7 03:34

to be blunt, I think Rich is overemphizing the fact that UTG+2 has a random hand (btw, he made a blind reraise, not a triple straddle, so he can't raise after everyone called. so in fact he could have a strong hand, but this is irrelevent here). the fact he stayed in the pot indicated he like the flop. even a random hand can hit a flop hard( in fact he hit top set here). say he has QT82 with 2 diamonds, a total trash starting hand, but hit this flop pretty well, and had BB crushed. to get 18Xpot stack in with a weak hand just  because UTG+2 has a random hand is not good, imho. and i don't see why others might called BB's bet light. he doesn't have a random hand, and leading into 3 opponents showes lots of strength on this flop. "对手因为知道BB知道他们是随机牌，会更倾向于用平时该弃掉的牌跟牌，所以有比通常面对弱牌赢更大锅的更大可能." I don't think this applies here. if someone called with a hand that doesn't warrant a call, it is becasue they are planning to use the position and deep stacks and numerous scare cards to outplay BB later.

i respect your opinion a lot, and like your other analytical posts, but it really  baffels me that you think leading out is correct. what is your plan if you are just called and a bad card (which are most of the deck) come on the turn? I can see if you have history with the other player and you would lead out a lot here with draws, even then being out of position the hand is very difficult to play on turn and river.

呵呵，看了大家，尤其是RichZhu这么热烈的回复，那我也来说下我的看法
先说下那个UTG+2的老外吧,我认为这把 ...
jxxiaobing 发表于 2010-10-7 16:42

i was  waiting for you to chime in.

let me summary the discussion so far. there are two main issues here:
A. the play of UTG+2. rich and I don't like it , while jimmy think it is brilliant. you are in the middle, think both line has merit, but leaning towards jimmy.

B. the best line for BB. Jimmy and I think the passive approach is best( check call ), while rich like leading out pot on flop. again, you are in the middle, but leaning towards jimmy and me.

interesting. anyone else?


p.s. i agree with you that qt8x with diamonds should repot, to hopefully fold out utg who might have a bigger flush draw, and to commit with 2 nonnut redraws so he won't be outplay out of position. if he is afraid to put in the stack with this hand, then why lead?

we disagree on the play of UTG. i think he should fold first time around, and you think he should call then fold to a raise. I don't think he went allin thinking the other two both has t8xx, he has no fold equity and has better odds to draw in 3way pot. i think he misread the other's hands and think bb has a bigger set, and want to reopen the pot so utg+2 can drive out BB with another raise. this end up helping out UTG+2. in second thought, we might be giving him (or all the players) too much credit . he might be a donkey and just want to gamble.  

不对吧？这牌如果BB过牌，进程应该是UTG+1下注，UTG+2加注，然后按你说的BB应该弃牌。BB只是少输而已，但 ...
RichZhu 发表于 2010-10-7 03:02

UTG (not utg+1, I made the mistake first) shouldn't bet bottom set. even if he did, with his short stack, UTG+2 can't raise.

if BB just check call the flop, he misrepresent his hand and opponents will put him on draws, most likely a flush draw or a wrap, since they have sets themself. if the turn bring a flush or a bigger straight, most likely the action will go check check and check. utg+2 can't bet because a big checkraise from bb will force him to fold and give up lots of equity. if the river is blank, bb can make a small value bet and fold to a raise or check call turning his hand into a bluffcatcher, depending on player tendency.

i strongly believe this is the best line for BB, but he still will face many difficult decisions. the biggest mistake BB made was calling with a deep stack preflop oop without a quality hand( we know this beacuse he has T8 but doesn't have redraw on j97 flop). after that there is no easy way to play the hand.

I think I have said everything i have to say about this hand. jimmy, rich and I probably will have to agree to disagree. still would like to see what others think. maybe we all miss sth important.

回复 408# asics


FYI：

1、當這把牌完了的時候，BB說他有2張T，所以他可能有68TT或78TT之類，有nuts而沒有redraw（剛巧沒有方塊）。另外，BB當時想了很久，足足有十分鐘，而在玩的玩家，包括UTG，對PLO都有一定的認識，都會估他是拿著dry nuts。想想，如果他是聽A花、龍頭順帶花、暗三等，他應該是很易跟入（因為pot odd），如果他偷，想也不用想棄掉，其實最難做決定的，只有他真正擁有的dry nuts。

2、UTG是個年青的北京人，據建設的資料，他是現時北京市打大PLO遊戲最好的玩家其中之一。他沒理由看不出BB是dry nuts，而非top set。UTG是看錯，不是在BB這邊，而是UTG+2這邊。我記得當時開牌，當老外開出top set，大家都用奇異的眼光望著，我估，當時在場的，都被老外迷惑了。我這樣說，並不是要跟UTG說一些甚麼的話，我只是覺得就算被誤導，也是正常不過。

假設，我認定了BB拿dry nuts，UTG+2拿nuts+聽花，這把牌UTG（有99XX）應該如何處理？我想跟入是必然的，跟入之後，他尚有40000，在河牌也不能棄掉，因為他可以用4萬搏14萬或18萬，所以全進是一個不好的打法，愈留人愈好。可能UTG認定自己不會在轉牌棄，就索性全下。


另外，我假設BB拿QT86（沒有方塊），你有nuts+redraw大的順子，3個8、4個K，你是BB，你會re-pot嗎？要知道，你的redraw很窄，如果面對對手拿nuts straight+聽花，你好明顯落後。遇到這樣，真的非常頭疼。

在同一天，我拿QJT7跟入，翻牌7c8h9h，我沒有紅桃，BB在6000元的鍋下注4000，我有35000，只選擇平跟，後位棄，SB pot到20000+，BB棄，我也鬥爭一輪才與SB全下。我才35000，175個BB，也很頭疼。如果900個BB，我也未必敢re-pot。

深淺籌碼，就是考慮不一樣！所以，我在網上只玩50-100個BB，可以輕裝上陣。

最後，打深籌碼PLO去到900個BB，我如果不是nuts，我不會把所有籌碼放到中間處的。

而在翻牌中nuts straight，沒有redraw，是其中一個只會贏小，郤有機會全輸的陷阱牌。

我的牌局，曾經出現了一局，翻牌K77，我率先為自己的KKxx下注，後位有人加注，我全程只是為自己的2nd nuts check call。因為，我當時打的是500個BB。