我是jimmyfish──PLO核心技術探討

这两天心情很tilty, 所以动不动就喜欢“拉掉”(all in) 感觉可能级别太小提不起精神。然后有不少疑问，但是总是懒得发，事后又忘记过程。决定即打即发。你们高手讨论的同时，也被我滋扰滋扰。

初哥牌例5  失去价值还是小牌小锅??

(NL2 6max , 100BB)
(由于对起手牌的认知甚微，希望几米老哥/Rich 多帮忙告诉我下每次的起手的策略是否正确。)
这把我在 UTG 觉得不错就平入一共4家平入。
Flop 不算我希望看到的但也不差，所以我bet pot，BB跟。
Turn 这张牌感觉让对手要么crush我，要么也有N个outs的牌，我哪怕再push可能他也不会走，所以我采取“小牌小锅”原则check.
River 对手主动bet pot.. 我觉得我弃得问题不大。
这里主要问的是turn上的决策。 谢谢

诚心请教几米老哥分析对手的思路:

tournement 300/600 A50 , 我t 8500  中位AsTc raise 1800, 后位有个上一局用89o 全下的傻鸟跟其余fold 我们HU.

FLOP  J 6 9 彩虹,  我check 给他， 他下1800, pot 已经6000多,我跟。
TURN  黑桃2  ,  我继续check 给他， 他下全下 4000多我大概还有5000筹码。我跟。
RIVER 已经不重要了，他拿什么牌?? 还有我这样打比赛是不是死得很惨?
(答案在下面 反色可见)



AKo

看到朱前辈的分析，真开眼了，我以前玩牌主要是娱乐，没想到吉米兄，和朱前辈玩牌有这样缜密的思路，希望朱前辈多写文章，你的文章多我这样的鱼，帮助很大。

回复 381# monox0


回覆初哥牌例5：

1、翻牌前，在UTG平進沒問題，KJ92雙同花是可以的起手牌。在PLO，甚麼的起手牌可以？這個是一個經常涉及的問題，我嘗試用一個簡單的方式回答一下。

PLO有4張牌，ABCD，當中組合有6個，即AB、AC、AD、BC、BD及CD，好了，簡單來說，當中組合連系愈多，就愈好。換句話說，6個組合連系上，就是一流，必玩，5個則是好，4個是可以，3個及以下是垃圾。

以你的例子，KhJc9c2h，看看他們的組合：

KhJc──連系
Kh9c──連系，但不是太好的連系
Kh2h──連系（同花）
Jc9c──連系
Jc2h──未有連系
9c2h──未有連系

所以，你這個起手牌是可以的，雙同花加分，三連張加分，諸如此類。


2、翻牌下注pot，做得好！

3、轉牌在對手觀望後應不應過牌？如果不下注，捐失value bet，如果下注，則與小牌小鍋原則背道而馳，如何決擇？

首先，你要問，一個合理的玩家，甚麼情況會check call這個翻牌9d8s2c，他很可能是聽牌，這個牌面，沒有聽花，只有聽順。聽順的可能有：67、7T、TJ，轉牌的7，對手有機會成順，他有可能想打check raise。

這牌不能下注，因為你有2對，有redraw及show down 的價值。

如果不來順子的可能性，是可以繼續value bet，來了，就過牌，你做對了。

4、河牌的5，是另一個順子的組合，你只有選擇棄牌份兒。

回复 382# monox0


回覆比賽問題：

你為什麼不c-bet？

你過牌後，就是放棄的選擇。你憑甚麼跟啊！A大冇draw！？

夠膽就check raise all in，但成本大，我不喜歡，所以我寧願c-bet，fold to any reraise。

最後，在轉牌，你不會用A high 冇draw跟入all in 吧！

如果真的，你真牛。

結局如何？

i was going to write sth questioning the play of utg-2. i think it is fancy play. but rich already did a detailed analysis and i agree with most of his points. one thing to note is he made a small raise to 30k while he could have made it 50k.  with two players already in and one to act, this doesn't look like nuts+redraw to me. he was giving fd or set too good an odds, while utg-1 was obviously on some kind of draw. if BB happens to have nuts+redraw ( or just nuts but don't believe him) and repot, he will have to either fold and give up his equity and 30k, or call and commit his full stack without the correct odds. given the deep stacks, he could have just call and easily call pot on turn, and use his position on the turn and  river to bet either paired board or flush card, or a eight, ten, queen or king. BB will have a tough decision to make unless turn and river are both blanks, which are only the A 2 3 4 5 6 that are not the flush card, 18 total. this leads to the play of BB.

I don't agree with rich on the play of the BB. with stack this deep (like 900 bb and 18xpot on the flop), 5 people in pot and 2nd to act, and bare straight with no redraw, I will be more worry about protecting my stack instead of protecting my hand which isn't worth much. I will just check call the flop ( and fold if there is a bet and a raise), and on turn try to checkraise  allin or close to it so I won't have to make a tough desicion on river. if the pot is too small to get committed on turn, then just checkcall turn and lead blank river. might look like a missed fd and get called by a set. i will probably follow the same line if it was just BB and UTG-2. you risk giving free cards to draws, but that is the price you pay for playing deep out of position, which you should avoid like a plague.

UTG-2 made the correct play to move allin after utg-1 went allin, which was correct only if utg-1 put BB on a bigger set. with bottom set I will just fold the first time along. in 5way pot, might just have one out.

just my 2cents. like to see more discussion about this interesting hand. remind me of the wsop time in Rio. deepstack live PLO is so much fun. wish I can be in Macau.

这牌。。。真的不好评价。如果必须评价的话，就两个字：疯狂。

试着说一下吧。

先说一下起手牌：UTG，+1 ...
RichZhu 发表于 2010-10-3 08:35

回复 380# RichZhu


    Rich说的太好，资金估计是主要原因。我个人准备50个buyin打现场的奥马哈，所以星际的话我可以无所顾忌的打，永利的还没准备好。。

回复 386# asics

关于UTG+2只加注到3万而不是5万确实是有疑点，所以我在前面的回复里也说了他可能有转牌不利免费看牌的考虑，没有彻底粘锅。不过这是澳门，疯狂的世界，也许这位真有T8+redraw怕把BB打走而甘愿冒风险，而且UTG+1筹码已经比较浅了，3万和5万没有多少差别。

关于BB应该保护这个锅还是保护自己筹码的问题，我是这样看的。

首先，似乎所有讨论者都在强调“深筹码”的问题。如果用BB来衡量，这是典型的深筹码牌局。问题是，当straddle出现后我们已经不能用BB做为衡量标准了。BB之所以用来衡量筹码的深度有两个原因：1）它衡量你拿到起手牌的代价。2）它是最大的盲注，也就是你能看翻牌的最小代价。通常这两点是合二为一的，但当straddle出现后，两者分离，而这手牌分离到极致，相差十倍。但不管怎样说，当这个最小看翻牌的代价因为三个straddle而增大十倍后，等效筹码深度急剧变小。尤其是这手牌，可以认为没有自愿进入底池的，在一个没有主动加注的情况下，有效筹码/底池最大的不过18，而UTG+1只有7。通常13是一个临界点，考虑到这是5个“盲注”之间的争夺，起手牌质量本身的缺陷，深筹码概念在这手牌里已经不再起支配地位。

其次，我们必须考虑straddle的效果以及为什么有人这样做“傻事”：自愿放更大的盲注。一种是纯赌徒觉得牌局小不不过瘾，这类就不说了。另一类是出于战术考量的，通过straddle把牌局级别变大，超出一些人的资金/心理承受能力。这手牌正是这样：你喜欢200看翻牌，我让你用2000才能看牌。这同时还有一个策略调整的问题，straddle把筹码深度变浅，对那些不需要很好的牌而打得很凶的人有利。当他按着传统的90BB筹码深度策略打你的时候，你还停留在900BB的超深度筹码的幻觉中做决定，你已经失败了。

通常情况下这种裸着的坚果顺子在5个人进来的情况下确实可以考虑过牌，原因是：1）你是“最好”的牌机会有限，2）能跟你重注的牌通常不会落后很多，下注价值有限。现在的情况不同：1）小盲示弱，剩下三家可以认为是随机牌，你是最好牌的机会大大增加。2）剩下三家都是自愿放盲注进来的，有好赌的倾向，同时因为你是大盲，“被迫进来”，他们也会给你的牌力打折扣，所以很多应该扔的牌都可能跟你，下注价值也大大提高。

基于上面的考虑，我还是认为这牌应该打得积极一些，翻牌直接一个pot。英语里有一句话：如果你受不了热，就不要进厨房。既然打这个牌局了，就不要怕被清光。

回复 388# RichZhu

thanks for the reply, Rich.

my take is 18 times pot is still pretty deep, too deep to risk your stack with a weak hand like t8xx no redraw. utg+1 was shorter, but we need to plan the hand according to the biggest stack still in the hand. if utg+1 bet and everyone fold, then it is different. that is one reason i think checking the flop is better. the main problem with leading is there are so many bad cards on turn and river that we will be forced to fold lots of time or guess wrong and lose our stack if opponents are half decent. (it would be different if we have some redraw so we can check when those hit to induce a potential bluff from an aggressive opponent. ) Here I would rather conceal my holding and play it like a drawing hand, essentially drawing for "blanks".  the hand is like a blufff catcher until river, then lead out big if it stays the nuts to get call from sets or 2 pairs who might think you missed the flush draw.

the straddle and blind raises is a factor, but not that big a factor. utg straddle to 400, and called 1600 more to stay in the hand. SB called 1900 and BB called 1800 in bad positions to  stay in, so their hands should  not  be weak at all if they are reasonable players.  ( looks like BB was actually a pretty loose player, given that he had t8xx but no redraw on j97 flop. the worst hand he should play in BB calling 9BB raise is sth like QJT8ss so a king or 8 will give him a bigger straight. this showes the importance of playing quality starting hands: on a flop like j97, you would have some kind of redraw if you hit the straight. then your life is much easier).  utg+1 and utg+2 had  random hands, but they could easily had sth like kqtd3d or t85d2d which are not good hands but had us crushed on this flop.
   
i am pretty aggressive in cash game actually, and will happily put in 500bb anytime i believe I have a 5% edge. but here our hand is so weak that we could be behind even if no one else has the nuts, plus we can't get the stacks in on the flop so leading out oop just build a pot to put ourself in position to be outplayed later. if you bet pot, what is your plan if any cards above 6 or flush cards come on the turn? and river?

看到Rich及Asics兩位的高見，我也來補充一下：

1、這個UTG+2的年青老外，絕不瘋狂，他經常在永利打高注額，包括NLH及PLO。據一些常客告訴我，我最善長的是打PLO短檯。這位年青老外，他面對前面一個下注pot，一個跟注pot，他拿著dry的頂暗三，反加到3萬，是一個很有創意的打法，我相信他做了一個很好的判斷：

a）大盲是位年青的新加坡人，他們倆個應該打了兩三天，見他們有時都會談論一些牌局，老外應該對新加坡年青人有點了解，知道在深籌碼下，他有dry 的T8也不敢推他。如果大盲推，他一定是拿著T8加redraw，那老外肯定棄的，這個我幾敢肯定，他對EV機率應該相當了解。

b）UTG是一個北京的年青人，在Jc9d7d的翻牌平跟一個大注是甚麼牌？是一個聽牌，而且所聽的，可以擊敗當時的nut straight，不外乎暗三、聽花、龍頭順如TQK，又或者是聽花帶順之類，這些牌，都是落後老外的，所以老外應該是為了利益而加他的注。

2、為何3萬而不是5萬？一般人是平跟，老外加注，他加注表示自己拿著T8+redraw，最少當時在玩的人是這樣想。BB最後的棄也是這個原因，UTG全下也是這個原因，他認為自己的中暗三有不少出路。其他旁觀的也是這樣估老外的牌。可以見到，老外花3萬就做到5萬的事情，效果不錯。如果大盲反手推，他走得便宜一點，所以，老外對大盲的加注，其實是問大盲拿著甚麼牌，亦是半偷他的雞。

3、老外如何在電光火石間，想到這個反加注？我問個一個朋友，他說網絡的深籌碼，經常是這樣幹的。所以，我相信，老外應該有很好的網絡經驗。這種fancy play，應該好象我們在NLH的後位用聽花反加前面注，一樣的普遍。只是，PLO中這樣幹，我很少見過。