追求进步贴

最近看了treat poker like a business收获挺大的。里面提到一个80/20法则，就是花80%的时间打牌，一定要分出20%的时间来学习。所以我以后在每个mtt session以后都会花很小的一段时间去复盘找leak，在这里记录下来，在下次的session前复习一遍，不犯同样的错误。

PokerStars - $3+$0.30|30/60 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

MP: 6,842.00
MP+1: 5,550.00
LP: 881.00
CO: 3,220.00
Hero (BTN): 2,318.00
SB: 2,940.00
BB: 9,185.00
UTG: 2,140.00
UTG+1: 5,509.00

SB posts SB 30.00, BB posts BB 60.00

Pre Flop: (90.00) Hero has AdQs
   
fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 180.00, fold, CO calls 180.00, Hero calls 180.00, fold, BB calls 120.00

Flop: As3s9c (750.00, 4 players)
      
BB bets 180.00, fold, fold, Hero raises to 540.00, BB calls 360.00

Turn: Qh (1830.00, 2 players)
  
BB checks, Hero bets 540.00, BB calls 540.00

River: Ks (2910.00, 2 players)
  
BB checks, Hero bets 1,058.00 and is all-in, BB calls 1,058.00

Hero shows AdQs

(Two Pair, Aces and Queens)
BB shows Ts9s
   
(Flush, Ace High)
BB wins 5,026.00

总结：要想清楚是value bet还是bluff bet。是value bet就要把对手的calling worse hands和calling better hands清楚分类，看哪一类占更大比重；是bluff就要把对手的folding better hands和calling better hands分类。

PokerStars - $20+$5+$2|300/600 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: 17,400.00
BB: 18,792.00
UTG: 9,184.00
UTG+1: 21,815.00
MP: 16,317.00
Hero (MP+1): 20,854.00
LP: 7,024.00
CO: 12,894.00
BTN: 2,348.00

SB posts ante 60.00, BB posts ante 60.00, UTG posts ante 60.00, UTG+1 posts ante 60.00, MP posts ante 60.00, Hero posts ante 60.00, LP posts ante 60.00, CO posts ante 60.00, BTN posts ante 60.00, SB posts SB 300.00, BB posts BB 600.00

Pre Flop: (1440.00) Hero has  A J

fold, fold, MP raises to 1,800.00, Hero calls 1,800.00, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (5040.00, 2 players)  K 8 J
MP bets 2,265.00, Hero calls 2,265.00

Turn: (9570.00, 2 players)  A
MP bets 3,985.00, Hero calls 3,985.00

River: (17540.00, 2 players)  T
MP checks, Hero checks

MP shows  K K  (Three of a Kind, Kings) (Pre 71%, Flop 98%, Turn 95%)
Hero mucks  A J  (Two Pair, Aces and Jacks) (Pre 29%, Flop 2%, Turn 5%)
MP wins 17,540.00

总结：一开始我想shove，但是筹码不够pot，达不到给他1/2 pot odds的效果所以就放弃了。后来细想他在river上check的目的是什么？根据他的行为，他的better hands: Sets,AK,AQ,KQ; Worse hands: KJ,AT,A-rags。再根据他的牌推导他将来的行为: 【Sets,AK,AQ,KQ】【KJ,AT】 - check to call; A-rags - check to fold.

这里shove作为bluff是不好的决定，因为不能make him fold better hands; Shove作为value bet也不好，因为他大部分的calling hands都比我的牌好，他fold的牌比我的牌糟。

要用Bayesian的思维推测对手的下一步行动。

PokerStars - $3+$0.30|60/120 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

CO: 2,755.00
BTN: 2,050.00
SB: 4,240.00
BB: 12,397.00
UTG: 9,586.00
Hero (MP): 8,196.00

CO posts ante 15.00, BTN posts ante 15.00, SB posts ante 15.00, BB posts ante 15.00, UTG posts ante 15.00, Hero posts ante 15.00, SB posts SB 60.00, BB posts BB 120.00

Pre Flop: (270.00) Hero has  2 2

UTG calls 120.00, Hero calls 120.00, CO raises to 420.00, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 300.00, Hero calls 300.00

Flop: (1530.00, 3 players)  T J J
UTG checks, Hero checks, CO bets 765.00, fold, Hero raises to 2,280.00, CO calls 1,515.00

Turn: (6090.00, 2 players)  A
Hero checks, CO bets 40.00 and is all-in, Hero calls 40.00

River: (6170.00, 2 players)  5

Hero shows  2 2  (Two Pair, Jacks and Twos) (Pre 52%, Flop 7%, Turn 0%)
CO shows  A J  (Full House, Jacks full of Aces) (Pre 48%, Flop 93%, Turn 100%)
CO wins 6,170.00

总结：不要marginal situation冒然进攻。如果他有over pair我就只有2 outs = 8%。如果他有High cards他依然有36%的赢面，不容易弃牌。这里我的fold equity（当场赢下）和winning equity（将来赢下）都太小。Shove以前，要多想想risk (losing equity)和reward (fold equity + winning equity)的关系。

谢谢回复，我觉得这手all比较难bluff。因为

• 我剩下的筹码较小，只是1/2pot，比较难让他弃掉Kx和mid pairs；
• 我比较怕他check-call K top pair，一路跟到底。
  

可能我在turn上的bet是个错误，因为没有考虑river怎么打。如果要bluff就在turn上bet小一些，好让river shove有威慑力。如果不打算river shove bluff，在turn上就可以弃掉了。

第二局，我会在RIVER选着AI。。LZ感觉能BLUFF下来吗？？

PokerStars - $3+$0.30|30/60 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

MP: 3,000.00
CO: 2,785.00
BTN: 2,773.00
SB: 7,818.00
Hero (BB): 2,975.00
UTG: 1,899.00

SB posts SB 30.00, Hero posts BB 60.00

Pre Flop: (90.00) Hero has Qc9s
   
fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 162.00, Hero raises to 480.00, SB calls 318.00

Flop: Kh2h4s(960.00, 2 players)
      
SB checks, Hero bets 480.00, SB calls 480.00

Turn: 7h (1920.00, 2 players)
  
SB checks, Hero bets 960.00, SB calls 960.00

River: 7d (3840.00, 2 players)
  
SB checks, Hero checks

SB shows AhJd
   
(One Pair, Sevens)
Hero mucks Qc9s
   
(One Pair, Sevens)
SB wins 3,840.00

总结：同上。Folding better hands: Ahx, Calling better hands: flush, Kx, mid pairs