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标题: 讨论一手牌 [打印本页]

作者: carterzhang    时间: 2009-10-18 22:35
标题: 讨论一手牌
Pokerstar, $3 + 0.4 单桌Sit & Go; 前三人进钱圈;
当时还有四个人,chipleader (CP) 6K, 我3.6K, 另两人3K 左右;blind 100/200

我拿A10 off suit 在button raised to 600; CP call; 副老婆Q28 off, no flash draw; CP bet 200; I raised to 800; CP called again; turn card is A; CP bet 200, I call; River card is 7, no flash on board; CP bet 1800, 我当时还有2K chips left, so that basically put me all in; pot was 5200, so I get around 1:3 pot odds. 我当时的想法是,CP called my raise on flop, so he should have at least a pair, likely Q or 8; when the A hit on turn, his bet of 200 very susipious, maybe testing whehter I have a A; the last bet of 1800 make me really think that he has A8 off suit, and he is just slow playing on the turn. I eventually folded my A10 and want to know whether I made the right decision.
作者: Howard    时间: 2009-10-19 01:44
标题: 讨论一手牌
我认为楼主fold得至少是比较合理的。

在cashgame里面,这是个no-brainer的call,你有1:3的odds,对手bluff加value bet但是牌没你好的可能性加起来有没有25%?我感觉是肯定有的,所以是肯定要call。

但是在SNG里面,一切都要换算成money odds。假设你打得SNG是stars上最常见的50/30/20结构。分三种情况考虑

1. 在River上如果你fold,你们4个人的chip是7.6K, 3k, 3k, 2k。你2K最少。用ICM (<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.icmpoker.com/Calculator.aspx">http://www.icmpoker.com/Calculator.aspx</a><!-- m -->)算一下,你的奖金池EV是17.05%

2. 如果你call,并且赢。假定w%你能赢吧。这时候你们是分别是7.2K, 3K,3k,2.4K。你跟chipleader对调位置,你的EV是35.58%

3.  如果call输了,概率是1-w,筹码是9.4K, 3k, 3k, 0.2K。你的EV是2.53%

综合2,3,你call以后的EV是35.58%*w + (1-w)2.53% = 2.53% + 33.05% * w

若要call EV = fold EV, w必须高于43.9%

你的胜率有没有43.9%那么高?这个很难讲,要见仁见智,但是即使比43.9高,也高不到哪里去。在我看来,这是一个borderline的决定。也就是说,无论你call还是fold,都不是太大的错误。

但是,以上计算也说明了一个严肃的命题,SNG胜4人的时候,不要轻易跟chipleader较劲!




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