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标题: PLO，flop暂时落后时，最多能有多少个outs？ [打印本页]

作者: DXXXXX 时间: 2011-5-5 17:10
标题: PLO，flop暂时落后时，最多能有多少个outs？

作者: muyir 时间: 2011-5-5 17:12
out多时，是领先的。。。可以考虑那种对手只是overpair，你是middle pair（draw两对和trips）+flush draw加straight draw的情况，你领先对手太多了

作者: Nolimit1980 时间: 2011-5-6 16:05
13 张出路基本上是平局，但一定是要坚果出路，否则有些出路要打折扣的。

作者: jimmyking 时间: 2011-5-6 21:13
7h8hJcQc Vs Ad3d2s4s

翻9hTh5c，前者Q大落後後者的A大。

前者的出路多啊，有4張6、3張7、3張8、3張J、3張Q、4張K，5張紅心（A/2/3/4/5），共25個出路。

餘下41張牌，超過60%有多，而且是發2次的牌。

作者: DXXXXX 时间: 2011-5-8 01:31

7h8hJcQc Vs Ad3d2s4s

翻9hTh5c，前者Q大落後後者的A大。

前者的出路多啊，有4張6、3張7、3張8、3張J、3 ...
jimmyking 发表于 2011-5-6 21:13

牛逼闪电呀，这是吉尼斯纪录吗？

作者: Howard 时间: 2011-5-10 03:28
两人对决，这可能是记录了，flop领先方只有13%的equity，1：7落后。

但多人对决还有更惨的，flop坚果可能已经死了，一个out也没有。没错，坚果也是听牌，听白板的牌。当白板一个都没有的时候，就听死了。

Phil Hellmuth的书《Bad Beats and Lucky Draws》里面有这么一手牌，据说是真实的：

SB: 5c-7c-8s-9s
BB: 3d-5s-7s-8d
Seat 1: Ac-Ad-4c-4d
Seat 2: Kd-Ks-Td-Ts T1100
Seat 3: As-Qs-Jh-9h
Seat 4: Kh-Th-6d-6c

Seat 1 raises to $35, 5 calls.

Flop: Tc-6s-4s.

The SB comes out for $150, 5 calls.

The SB raised with a huge straight wrap and a flush draw. The BB calls with a straight flush draw. Seat 1 calls with bottom set. Seat 2 decides just to call with the nuts, hoping for a safe turn to go all in. Seat 3 calls with the nut flush draw. Seat 4 calls with second set.

Turn: Kc.

SB checks, BB checks, Seat 1 checks, Seat 2 bets $1,100, 5 calls.

Seat 2 got his "safe" turn card and pushed all in. This basically put everyone else all in as well. He looked at the Kc as the second safest card in the deck since he still had the nuts. Seat 3 called with the nut flush draw. Seat 4 called with second set and top two. The SB called still with the huge straight wrap and a flush draw with great pot odds. The BB also called all in with the straight flush draw. Seat 1 called as well.

Now if you look closer at this "safe" turn card, it actually left Seat 2 drawing dead going to the river. He was holding the stone cold nuts and was drawing dead. Don't believe me? Try to find a river card where he still is in the lead. There isn't one. So much for nut peddling.

River: 2d

The BB takes the pot with the nut straight.

Drawing dead with the nuts, Omaha is a crazy game.

作者: Howard 时间: 2011-5-10 03:52
虽然文中在Turn上KKTT才听死，其实在flop上它也是六手牌中equity最低的。需要runner-runner才能获胜

作者: monox0 时间: 2011-5-10 11:34
LZ 的意思我想是说牌面的落后，而不是概率的落后。

我假设你两种都想知道：

概率的落后，即小于50%，那么最多是13~14个outs,此时概率为50%左右。

牌面的落后，比如2222 和 QhJh8d7d 在 9hTh3d 的flop
来任意的6-K, 红心或者runner runner的方片都能赢，你可以算一下，大概有超过30张outs, 概率应该在95%以上。

作者: DXXXXX 时间: 2011-5-11 14:36
回复 8# monox0

我本意确实是指牌面弱后时，我想的情况也是对手2222，呵呵。谢谢各位大大的回答。

作者: jimmyking 时间: 2011-5-11 15:24
回复 8# monox0

ＱｈＪｈ８ｄ７ｄ　Ｖｓ　２２２２

翻牌Ｔｈ　９ｈ　３ｄ

勝率是85：15

沒有95％這麼多。

ＰＬＯ應該這樣說，就翻牌來說，2222　比ＱＪ８７大，但從概率的角度，ＱＪ８７領先2222。

作者: jimmyking 时间: 2011-5-11 15:27
回复 6# Howard

精彩！ｄｒａｗｉｎｇ　ｄｅａｄ　ｗｉｔｈ　ｎｕｔｓ，因為沒有任何的白板牌！令人難以至信。

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