Villain is an aggressive TAG reg sitting with $2300.
Hero is sitting with $2400 and has no specific reads on villain except that he is raising a decent amount pre.
UTG ($500) straddles to $10
MP($700) limps, BTN($500) limps. Hero completes with 44 in SB. Villain raises to $55 in BB. straddler calls, MP calls, BTN folds, hero calls.
Flop ($230) K94sss
Hero checks. Villain bets $110. folds to hero who calls.
river: hmmm... tough decision, hero don't show his hand str actively by bet/raise, but his call still have some tells.
I thought V put him on small flush + sets + two pairs like K9hh I'm not sure hero's VPIP support this or not .
What's his range, very small 1% bluff, KK for sure, and some AJ/AQs even some semi hands like AsKx ? Hero said V PFR is high, so I think it's maybe reasonable to put also 99 to put into his range?
I think all QQ/JJ/TT don't play this line unless he knows Hero so well.
call need at 2:3 pot odds which is almost 40%. by purly counting combos I thought this is a marginally +EV call.
But think about the emotional impact after call and lose all day profits, I highly doubt my conclusion above
Revision: Back to thought again, I think it's a fold. Can V bet so huge with his flush ? that's very very high thinking level ( the blurry bet ) , I don't think live player do this often. So the weight inclines to the monster hands.. 作者: haoqianruhaose 时间: 2015-11-18 12:48 本帖最后由 haoqianruhaose 于 2015-11-18 13:01 编辑
河牌应该主动下注。河牌这个需要对人的解读。发牌谱这个人打的真弱。
河牌这个下注是个nuts or nothing的下注。我们来看看前面的几个下注。
pre flop open，两高张，对子，k9s。 flop 不到半池，turn上半池。这根本不是nothing的打法。nothing应该是flop重锤，turn重锤，河牌all in。这样我才考虑去抓对手。我相信对手是有真东西的。44不领先所有成牌。所以是个果断弃牌。
